Advanced age, comorbidity and the risk of mortality in COVID-19 infection

Endeshaw, Yohannes; Campbell, Krystle

doi:10.1016/j.jnma.2022.06.005

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…This general trend has been documented in previous studies. 1,6,11,29,30 However, we noticed a pattern similar to a previous Philippine study 20 on cases of the ancestral variant: the CFRs of the lowest age group (i.e., 0-4 years) tend to be up to 6 times the CFR of the baseline (i.e., 18-29 years), with the lowest CFRs seen in the 5-17 age group. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 29 shows a generally increasing trend in CFR but a study by Khera et al (2021) supports our findings and attributed this “U-shaped” phenomenon to several factors such as children having differential expression of ACE-2 receptors, more robust innate immune system (except for newborns), and lesser exposure due to public health measures.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

COVID-19 infection wave mortality from surveillance data in the Philippines using machine learning

Migriño,

Batangan,

Abello

2023

Preprint

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ObjectiveThe Philippines has had several COVID-19 infection waves brought about by different strains and variants of SARS-CoV-2. This study aimed to describe COVID-19 outcomes by infection waves using machine learning.MethodsWe used a cross-sectional surveillance data review design using the DOH COVID DataDrop data set as of September 24, 2022. We divided the data set into infection wave data sets based on the predominant COVID-19 variant(s) of concern during the identified time intervals: ancestral strain (A0), Alpha/Beta variant (AB), Delta variant (D), and Omicron variant (O). Descriptive statistics and machine learning models were generated from each infection wave data set.ResultsOur final data set consisted of 3 896 206 cases and ten attributes including one label attribute. Overall, 98.39% of cases recovered while 1.61% died. The Delta wave reported the most deaths (43.52%), while the Omicron wave reported the least (10.36%). The highest CFR was observed during the ancestral wave (2.49%), while the lowest was seen during the Omicron wave (0.61%). Higher age groups generally had higher CFRs across all infection waves. The A0, AB and D models had up to four levels with two or three splits for each node. The O model had eight levels, with up to 16 splits in some nodes. Of the ten attributes, only age was included in all the decision tree models, while region of residence was included in the O model. F-score and specificity were highest using naïve Bayes in all four data sets. Area under the curve (AUC) was highest in the naïve Bayes models for the A0, AB and D models, while sensitivity was highest in the decision tree models for the A0, AB and O models.DiscussionThe ancestral, Alpha/Beta and Delta variants seem to have similar transmission and mortality profiles. The Omicron variant caused lesser deaths despite being more transmissible. Age remained a significant predictor of death regardless of infection wave. We recommend constant timely analysis of available data especially during public health events and emergencies.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

COVID-19 infection wave mortality from surveillance data in the Philippines using machine learning

Migriño,

Batangan,

Abello

2023

Preprint

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“…Similarly, Waechter C. et al also found a male predominance among COVID-19 patients [7]. Based on our results, it appears that both advanced age and male gender may have a significant impact on the prognosis of moderate to severe forms of COVID-19 in patients with type 2 diabetes [9][10][11].…”

Section: Socio-demographic Aspectssupporting

confidence: 83%

Association between Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Moderate to Severe Forms of Covid-19 among Inpatients at the Military Armed Forces Training Hospital Omar BONGO ONDIMBA

2023

Ann Case Report

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Background: Comorbidities, such as Type 2 diabetes Mellitus, have been identified as high-risk factors for developing moderate or severe COVID-19. In this study, we aimed to explore the epidemiological aspect of COVID-19 in Type 2 diabetes patients in Gabon, Central Africa.Method: This was a retrospective and descriptive study conducted over a period of 12 months, from September 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021, at the Military Armed Forces Training Hospital Omar BONGO ONDIMBA. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and severity of COVID-19 in patients with Type 2 diabetes.Results: A total of 65 patients were hospitalized in the internal medicine COVID unit and were included in the study. The majority of patients (53.1%) were aged 60 years and older, with a median age of 60 years and a range between 33 and 87 years. The male gender was predominant, accounting for 56.9% of cases. Moderate forms of COVID-19 were observed in 72.3% of patients, with dyspnea being the most common clinical sign (42.6%). Severe forms were observed in 27.7% of patients, and respiratory distress was the dominant clinical sign (50%). A chest CT scan revealed lung damage of more than 50% in these patients. Ketoacidosis, an acute complication of Type 2 diabetes, was observed in 18.5% of patients. Conclusion:This study highlights the significant impact of Type 2 diabetes on the outcome of COVID-19 infections, increasing the risk of severe forms and resulting in worse vital prognoses for patients. Early detection of diabetes in suspected COVID-19 cases is crucial to mitigate this risk.

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“…Another critical aspect that significantly influences the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths are risk factors such as age, gender, and the presence of comorbidities. Although previous studies showed that some risk factors such as comorbidities [ 12 , 13 ] and advanced age [ 14 , 15 ] can increase the risk of severity and mortality in patients with COVID-19, most existing studies were conducted in the pre-Omicron period, whose analyses and goal focused on investigating the impact of other variants of concern such as Alpha [ 16 ] and Delta [ 17 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Factors Associated with Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 during the Omicron Wave in Brazil

et al. 2022

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Considering the imminence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and COVID-19 vaccine availability, it is essential to understand the impact of the disease on the most vulnerable groups and those at risk of death from the disease. To this end, the odds ratio (OR) for mortality and hospitalization was calculated for different groups of patients by applying an adjusted logistic regression model based on the following variables of interest: gender, booster vaccination, age group, and comorbidity occurrence. A massive number of data were extracted and compiled from official Brazilian government resources, which include all reported cases of hospitalizations and deaths associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Brazil during the “wave” of the Omicron variant (BA.1 substrain). Males (1.242; 95% CI 1.196–1.290) aged 60–79 (3.348; 95% CI 3.050–3.674) and 80 years or older (5.453; 95% CI 4.966–5.989), and hospitalized patients with comorbidities (1.418; 95% CI 1.355–1.483), were more likely to die. There was a reduction in the risk of death (0.907; 95% CI 0.866–0.951) among patients who had received the third dose of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (booster). Additionally, this big data investigation has found statistical evidence that vaccination can support mitigation plans concerning the current scenario of COVID-19 in Brazil since the Omicron variant and its substrains are now prevalent across the entire country.

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Advanced age, comorbidity and the risk of mortality in COVID-19 infection

Cited by 5 publications

References 18 publications

COVID-19 infection wave mortality from surveillance data in the Philippines using machine learning

COVID-19 infection wave mortality from surveillance data in the Philippines using machine learning

Association between Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Moderate to Severe Forms of Covid-19 among Inpatients at the Military Armed Forces Training Hospital Omar BONGO ONDIMBA

Risk Factors Associated with Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 during the Omicron Wave in Brazil

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