Adult Mortality Differentials and Regional Development at the local level in Brazil, 1980-2010

Abstract

In this paper, we study study spatial and temporal adult mortality trends in small areas of Brazil, from 1980 to 2010, and its relation to socioeconomic and public health developments. Brazil is marked by huge regional and social inequality and it is important to understand how it could be related to trends and differences in adult mortality. There are several studies about trends in infant and child mortality, but much less is known about adult mortality. We are also interested in understand whether there is a convergence or divergence in adult mortality. This is relevant because changes in life expectancy in the near future could be heavily explained by differences in adult mortality as infant and child mortality have shown signs of convergence in recent years Preliminary draft Please, do not cite without authors permissionComments are welcome 2

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Adult Mortality across Small Areas in Brazil: Exploration Analysis Using Machine Learning Models

“…Unemployment was the variable with the second most predictive power, which validates the vast literature documenting the strong associations between disadvantage in the job market and both health and mortality (Iversen et al 1987;Moser et al 1987;Roelfs et al 2011, Queiroz et al 2017. High unemployment rates are related to low growth and economic development.…”

“…In contrast, employment has been associated with positive characteristics, such as greater self-esteem and independence. Queiroz et al (2017) found that high levels of unemployment were associated with a greater probability of adult deaths in Brazil. In a longitudinal study conducted in Sweden, Montgomery et al (2013) found that among men aged 34 to 38 years and those aged 45 to 49 years, the risk mortality related to unemployment is greater in the older group and among more qualified individuals.…”

“…In contrast, most studies addressing adult mortality have focused on the quality of the data and coverage rather than factors of inequality (Moura et al 2016;Walque and Wilmer 2013;Vasconcelos and França 2012). The determinants of adult mortality are explored little in Brazil (e.g., Queiroz et al 2017).…”

“…According to Queiroz et al (2017), there was considerable coverage of deaths between 1980 and 2010 in studies analyzing the quality of data related to adult mortality.…”