Summary
Background
As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and
populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a
larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of
Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a
comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with
disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990
to 2016.
Methods
We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries
and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a
Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring
consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death
rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling
strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data.
YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for
all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to
cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary
indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility
rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent
Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).
Findings
Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing
loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five
leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95%
uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8–75·9 million
[7·2%, 6·0–8·3]), 45·1 million
(29·0–62·8 million [5·6%,
4·0–7·2]), 36·3 million
(25·3–50·9 million [4·5%,
3·8–5·3]), 34·7 million
(23·0–49·6 million [4·3%,
3·5–5·2]), and 34·1 million
(23·5–46·0 million [4·2%,
3·2–5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised
rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by
2·7% (95% UI 2·3–3·1). Despite mostly stagnant
age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable
diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because
of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest
absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages
of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined
were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0–11·8) higher in women
than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer’s disease
and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all
musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions
contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised
rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases,
cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted
much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for
premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in
age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the
lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862–11943)...