Adjustment and Long‐Run Economic Performance in 18 African Countries

Gebregziabher, Fiseha Haile

doi:10.1002/jid.3056

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(52 reference statements)

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“…argue that the findings of negative effects of the IMF involvement on output growth are largely driven by experiences of Latin America, partially due to a prolonged history of economic volatility in the region and to low program completion rates. Gebregziabher (2015) finds mixed results while studying stabilization programs in the African region. We include controls to capture estimates of growth effects pertaining to Africa and Latin America.…”

Section: The Additional Controls Publication and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

IMF programs and economic growth: A meta-analysis

Balima

Sokolova

2021

Journal of Development Economics

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We examine 994 estimates of the effects of IMF programs on economic growth as reported by 36 studies. The mean reported effect is positive, but the estimates vary widely. We use meta-regression analysis to disentangle sources of this variation, addressing model uncertainty with Bayesian Model Averaging and LASSO. We find that estimates vary systematically depending on data and methods employed by the researchers. Reported effects of IMF programs tend to be more positive for samples that include countries with high levels of institutional and economic development, when measured on longer horizons, estimated using more recent data or obtained with the propensity score matching technique. Estimates appear to depend on the types of IMF programs being considered, as general resource programs tend to result in less favorable growth outcomes compared to programs that lend from concessional resources. Authors with IMF affiliation tend to report estimates that are somewhat higher than those of outside researchers.

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Section: The Additional Controls Publication and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

IMF programs and economic growth: A meta-analysis

Balima

Sokolova

2021

Journal of Development Economics

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“…Debido a lo anterior, en la literatura internacional se han llevado a cabo varios estudios referentes a la identificación de quiebres estructurales en las series macroeconómicas (Ben-David y Papell, 1998;Gebregziabher, 2015;McConell y Perez, 2000). Dentro de estos se cuentan algunos trabajos que analizan la serie del PIB, como el de Ben-David y Papell (1998).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…Por su parte, McConnell y Perez (2000) analizan la posibilidad de un cambio estructural en la varianza del PIB estadounidense, y hallan evidencia de una reducción de la volatilidad en 1984, como consecuencia de la disminución de la variabilidad en la producción de bienes durables. Gebregziabher (2015) busca identificar el vínculo entre los programas de estabilización con componentes estructurales, propuestos por el FMI y el Banco Mundial, y la aparición de quiebres estructurales en el crecimiento económico de 18 economías africanas. Encuentra poca evidencia para sustentar la efectividad de tales medidas.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Crecimiento económico colombiano y quiebres estructurales endógenos

Rosero

Uribe

2016

Ens. Econ.

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ResumenEste documento explora mediante pruebas de cambio estructural endógeno, posibles quiebres en la distribución no condicional del crecimiento del PIB real colombiano entre 1924 y 2013. No se encuentra evidencia de algún quiebre estructural en la tasa de crecimiento económico durante el periodo analizado, contradiciendo previos hallazgos de la literatura académica colombiana. Para la serie en niveles del logaritmo del PIB real se obtiene evidencia de tres cambios estructurales en la tendencia, en los años 1942, 1972 y 1999. El último podría asociarse con reformas económicas, en términos de apertura de las cuentas real y financiera de la economía colombiana. Se comparan las estimaciones con la situación para otros 16 países de la región. En este caso, a diferencia del colombiano, los resultados apuntan a la presencia de quiebres a finales de la década de los 70, durante la década de los 80, y a principios de los 90 para algunos países de la región. Palabras Claves: Crecimiento económico; PIB; quiebre estructural; apertura económica. AbstractWe test for endogenous structural breaks in the Colombian annual-real-GDP growth from 1924 to 2013. We do not find evidence supporting a change in the economic growth rate during the sample, as stated by some previous theoretical and empirical studies for the Colombian case. Nevertheless, we find evidence of breaks in the PIB trend in 1942, 1972 and 1999. The latter can be related to structural reforms implemented in the Colombian economy, in terms of commercial and financial liberalization. We compare our main results with estimations for other 16 countries of the Latin American region. Unlike the Colombian case, other Latin American economies do house structural breaks at the end of the 70s, during the 80s and at the beginning of the 90s. Keywords: Economic growth; GDP; structural change; economic openness. JEL CLAssification: O40; O49; C22.

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“…Gebregziabher (2014) compiled data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Penn World Tables and World Development Indicators to assess growth in GDP and investment to determine the overall impact of SAPs. Only 7 of 18 countries experienced positive effects of SAPs.…”

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confidence: 99%

Fifty years of deleterious external engagement with sub‐Saharan African states

2020

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Since the end of the colonial era the majority of sub-Saharan African nations have stagnated or declined on key measures of stability and well-being. Despite numerous foreign interventions in the form of aid, trade, technical assistance, and military support, students and scholars of modern Africa must recognize that foreign powers have consistently failed in their efforts to prop up, stabilize, and maintain independent nation states. A holistic view of more than 50 years of support for dictatorships, inequitable trade deals, resource extraction, conflict intervention, debt entrapment, and attempts at regime change raises the question as to whether foreign interventions were intentionally disruptive. Modern African nations struggle at the bottom of demographic health and well-being indicators, and conflicting foreign involvements have often stymied the growth of institutions that serve the majority of citizens' democratic, legal, and financial needs for promoting equitable and sustainable growth.

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Adjustment and Long‐Run Economic Performance in 18 African Countries

Cited by 8 publications

References 33 publications

IMF programs and economic growth: A meta-analysis

IMF programs and economic growth: A meta-analysis

Crecimiento económico colombiano y quiebres estructurales endógenos

Fifty years of deleterious external engagement with sub‐Saharan African states

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