Adjusting annual maximum peak discharges at selected stations in northeastern Illinois for changes in land-use conditions

Abstract

For more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment-visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS.For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://store.usgs.gov.Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner.Suggested citation: Over, T.M., Saito, R.J., and Soong, D.T., 2016, Adjusting annual maximum peak discharges at selected stations in northeastern Illinois for changes in land-use conditions: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2016-5049, 33 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/sir20165049. ISSN 2328-0328 (online) iii Acknowledgments Tzuoh-Ying Su, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers-Chicago District, provided many helpful ideas and suggestions in the planning and execution of this project, as well as assistance in finding reservoir information. David Theobald, Colorado State University, provided the housing density data and guidance on its use. Significant assistance was freely provided by various agencies in collecting and verifying dam and reservoir information for the study areas. Rick Gosch, Paul Mauer, and Gary Jereb of the Illinois Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) provided dam and reservoir information throughout the study area. Conversion Factors AbstractThe effects of urbanization on annual maximum peak discharges in northeastern Illinois and nearby areas from 1945 to 2009 were analyzed with a two-step longitudinalquantile linear regression approach. The peak discharges were then adjusted to 2010 land-use conditions. The explanatory variables used were daily precipitation at the time of the peak discharge event and a housing density-based measure of developed land use. The effect of the implementation of stormwater detention was assessed indirectly. Peak discharge records affected by the construction of large reservoirs that affect channel routing were identified and were split into segments at the time of completion of the reservoir. Longitudinal regressions of the peak discharge records on linear and logarithmic transformations of the selected measures of urbanization and precipitation were tested, and the best fitting model was selected for quantile regression and adjustment of the peak discharges.Because the uncertainties of streamgage-by-streamgage regressions of peak discharges as a function of urbanization are so large, a regional urbanization response was computed. Streamgages used in this study fit the following two criteria: (1) drainage area is at most 200 square miles and, (2) at least 10 consecutive years of peak discharge record are available. In the first step of the regression analysis, linear longitudinal regre...

Causal Effect of Impervious Cover on Annual Flood Magnitude for the United States

“…We also check for a nonlinear relationship (quadratic and cubic) between impervious cover and floods. In the region of Chicago, Illinois, Allen and Bejcek (1979) reported a decreasing effect of impervious cover on floods while Over et al (2016) reported an increasing effect. Thus, we do not have a clear hypothesis about the sign of a nonlinear relationship.…”

“…Previously, panel approaches have been used to estimate the effect of forest cover on flood frequency (Ferreira & Ghimire, 2012), deforestation on streamflow (Levy et al, 2018), rainfall on low streamflow (Bassiouni et al, 2016), and urbanization on annual runoff coefficients (Steinschneider et al, 2013). The only study that has applied panel models in the context of urbanization and flooding is Over et al (2016). However, rather than estimating a causal effect of urbanization on floods, the study applies fitted parameters to adjust the historical flood records for northeastern Illinois.…”