Adequacy of Australia's GP workforce: estimating supply and demand, 2005–06 to 2015–16

Abstract

Objective A 2011 Australian study calculated average annual general practitioner (GP) utilisation and predicted numbers required to meet demand to 2020. The objective of the present study is to calculate average annual GP utilisation in 2015–16 compared with clinical demand predicted in 2005–06. Methods Demand was calculated from Medicare Benefits Schedule, Department of Veterans’ Affairs and Australian Bureau of Statistics data. Length of consultation and average clinical hours worked per week (from 2002–03 to 2015–16) was drawn from GP self-reported data collected through the Bettering the Evaluation And Care of Health (BEACH) program. GP workforce numbers were sourced from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare ‘Medical practitioners workforce 2015’ report. Results Predicted demand from 2005–06 to 2009–10 approximated GP supply. Beyond 2011, approximately 2674 additional GPs were required in 2015–16 to maintain the average annual 2005–06 GP workload. An additional 5941 GPs were required to meet the increase in clinical demand (for GP services to patients) from 2005–06 to 2015–16. Conclusions The number of GP clinical hours worked decreased, and clinical demand increased. Ongoing efforts are required to ensure the supply of GPs to meet the clinical demand of Australia’s aging population. What is known about this topic? For the past three decades there has been concern about the supply of GPs in Australia. In recent years the Australian Government has taken several steps to improve access to GP services by increasing the overall supply of GPs and encouraging a more even distribution of GPs across Australia. A 2011 Australian study calculated average annual GP service utilisation and predicted the number of GPs required to meet clinical demand to 2020. There are current concerns that the GP workforce has reached a state of oversupply. What does this paper add? This study concludes that the GP workforce is not in a state of oversupply, confirming that patient clinical demand increased through both population growth and the aging of the population. Although the number of GPs increased, the number of clinical hours worked by (male) GPs decreased. Therefore, the rise in the number of GPs did not result in a proportional rise in GP workforce capacity. Clearly standardised definitions and inclusions for counting the GP workforce would improve accuracy in measuring this section of the health workforce. What are the implications for practitioners? GP workforce supply will require ongoing monitoring over coming years considering the increasing population, the aging of the population, declining clinical GP working hours and the approaching mass retirement of older GPs.

Mental health symptoms in Australian general practitioners during the COVID-19 pandemic

“…Moreover, one study showed that burnout had a direct effect on GPs' turnover intention (Zhang et al 2021). Similar to the UK, the Australian PHC workforce has been under a significant amount of pressure for some time, with the ever-expanding workload due to GP shortage, (The Guardian 2021) and the growing aging population (Dingwall et al 2020). Crisis events, such as the pandemic, further exacerbate the problem; for example, the UK is currently facing a potential exodus of GPs due to a 'burnout workforce' (The Guardian 2021).…”

Cross-sectional analysis of the clinical work hours of early-career general practitioners

“…Planning for an adequate primary care workforce that is responsive to the changing needs of the Australian population will require an understanding of the practice patterns of GPs. 6 A focus on early-career GPs can provide relevant information on the working trends of recent fellows. Further cohort studies that follow early-career GPs over time, along with qualitative research components, are warranted to develop a deeper understanding of these trends.…”

“…3 Although many GPs are satisfied with their job, 4,5 these demographic and societal changes are affecting their participation in clinical practice. The average number of clinical hours worked by GPs has decreased in recent years, 6 with the trend evident across career stages and genders. 7,8 Although female GPs work, on average, fewer hours than male GPs, 8 male GPs have also been reducing their clinical working hours.…”

General practice management of rotator cuff related shoulder pain: A reliance on ultrasound and injection guided care

“…Further, uncertainty regarding the efficacy of exercise (recent Cochrane review published after the National survey) [49] may also impact on GPs decision making when managing RCRP. Finally, Australia has a maldistributed GP workforce [50] and a rapidly increasing population attendance rate to general practice [51], so it is possible that GPs lack the time to adequately assess and manage RCRP within their primary care setting [31,47].…”