Addressing uncertainty when projecting marine species distributions under climate change

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to project terrestrial species’ responses to climate change and are increasingly being used for similar objectives in the marine realm. These projections are critically needed to develop strategies for resource management and the conservation of marine ecosystems. SDMs are a powerful and necessary tool; however, they are subject to many sources of uncertainty. To ensure that SDM projections are informative for management and conservation decisions, sources of uncertainty must be considered and properly addressed. Here we provide ten overarching guidelines that will aid researchers to identify, minimize, and account for uncertainty through the entire model development process, from the formation of a study question to the presentation of results. These guidelines were developed at an international workshop attended by over 50 researchers and practitioners. Although our guidelines are broadly applicable across biological realms, we provide particular focus to the challenges and uncertainties associated with projecting the impacts of climate change on marine species and ecosystems.

Identifying important habitat for northern bottlenose and Sowerby's beaked whales in the western North Atlantic

“…For species at risk, all habitat areas may be important depending on the acceptable level of risk and the management question. For the small, Endangered Scotian Shelf population of NBW, identifying all potential habitat areas as Critical Habitat, which has a broad legal mandate for protection, may be necessary to ensure recovery in the face of uncertainty and changing climatic conditions (e.g., Figure S7; Davies et al, 2023). However, when there is high uncertainty in potential habitat and population size (e.g., due to low species prevalence of SBW), it may be more acceptable and effective to focus conservation efforts on areas with temporally persistent foraging (e.g., Figure 6h).…”

Navigating the unknown: assessing anthropogenic threats to beaked whales, family Ziphiidae

“…The complex pathways and cumulative often indirect nature of climate change effects have been demonstrated by recent mortalities of North Atlantic right whales ( Eubalaena glacialis ), who shifted their migration and foraging areas due to altered prey resources and increased their risk of vessel strike [32–34] and entanglement. The intersection of climate change with all other threats emphasizes the need to adopt flexible and adaptive conservation strategies for cetaceans [35,36].…”