Addressing Tipping Points for a Precarious Future

Abstract

BookAddressing Tipping Points for a Precarious Future This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/162999 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Data availableTypeset by Keystroke, Station Road, Codsall, Wolverhampton Printed in Great Britain by T.J. International, Padstow, Cornwall ISBN 978-0-726553-6 For our next generation who will live through what we create for them James, Zoë, Joseph, Esther, Edward and Sammy Contents List of figures and tables xi Foreword by Sir Crispin Tickell xiiiPreface xv Acknowledgements xix Notes on contributors xxiPART 1 Tipping points and critical thresholds 1 Metaphors and systemic change 3 TIM O'RIORDAN, TIM LENTON, AND IAN CHRISTIEPART 2 Earth system tipping points 21 One of the best demonstrations of tipping points is in the behaviour of ecosystems. Within the infinite complexity of living systems in which different organisms depend on each other, one break in the chain or tipping point can bring rapid change to the others linked within it. For some this means disaster; for others it means rapid, perhaps favourable, change within a new chain. This is part of the phenomenon of life. Tipping elements from a global perspective 23We can see this in the history of the human animal. Tribes, cities, and societies can rapidly crash or flourish. As ever, the tipping point could not have been foreseen. Usually it was a combination of unusual circumstances. Changes in patterns of rainfall came together with social and economic difficulties to bring about the collapse of classic Maya society. The Black Death coincided with the beginnings of the Little Ice Age to transform mediaeval society. A new merchant elite was able to tip over the monarchies of King Charles I and later King James II, and thereby create the circumstances of the industrial revolution in the following century.We are certainly in turbulent times today. Our current epoch has been labelled 'the Anthropocene' by many geologists: it marks the period since the industrial revolution in which the human species has vastly increased its numbers; exploited the natural, often irreplaceable resources of the Earth; upset longstanding ecosystems, thereby destroying countless other species; and changed the chemistry of the land, sea, and air of the Earth in ways we have yet to understand. For example, we can observe the current xiii destabilization of climate with prospects for global warming, but can only ...

Communicating Climate Risk: A Toolkit

“…Hence, figuring out how to ensure broad and effective participation of all countries in the decision-making process represents another important dimension of justice in the climate regime. (Okereke 2010) O'Riordan and Lenton (2013) propose that "six features -global pervasiveness, uncertainty, interdependency, the reverberations of history, interdisciplinarity, and temporality -form the cultural foundation on which media engagement with climate change has developed and will continue to unfold." Yet one perennial problem with climate risk communication is that it is usually so clearly identifiable as climate risk communication, or nearby discourses like apocalyptic or superdisaster narratives, or science fiction (especially subgenres such as cli-fi or solarpunk).…”