Abstract:A systemic stock-flow diagram is proposed for the communication and management of health services and strategies concerning the COVID-19 epidemic. The possible role of government interventions in activating systemic leverage points is also addressed. The presented approach, based on Systems Thinking, can create the basis for creating an analytical simulator of the disease spread, and at the same time the diagram can constitute a powerful tool for improving the quality of information for both policy-makers and … Show more
“…A very general and hence hardly useful view on the use of systems thinking in the current situation was presented by Hassan et al ( 2020 ). Far more useful is the contribution on COVID‐19 management and communication with the proposed systemic stocks‐and‐flows diagram (Gonella, Casazza, Cristiano, & Romano, 2020 ). Probably the most inclusive effort to capture the complexity of the COVID‐19 crisis was made by Sahin et al ( 2020 ).…”
The COVID‐19 pandemic outbreak remains one of the most influential events in the global economy over the recent years. While being primarily public health related, it has a tremendous impact on many other aspects, including business management. Many businesses were forced to introduce rapid changes to their business models in order to survive. The aim of this paper is to show the complexity and interrelations of changes triggered by COVID‐19 outbreak. Understanding of this complexity is crucial for developing business resilience to similar events in the future. The paper uses systems thinking approach to analyze influence of COVID‐19 pandemic on business operations and to show the importance of the proper government response to the COVID‐19 crisis. A causal loop diagram is used to show the complicated mechanisms behind the impact of pandemic on several aspects of business operation and management. Perceptions of some variables play more important roles than actual variables, and it often requires more than one actor to solve a particular problem. Adaptive business management may prove to be a particular challenge for small business owners. The paper provides useful insights into the complex nature of contemporary business operation and management in the wake of a major epidemiological crisis. It may contribute to a better understanding of important factors that often tend to be disregarded and not paid enough attention to. It offers food for thought not only for academics, but also to business owners/managers, aware of the complexity of contemporary world and to government‐level decision‐makers.
“…A very general and hence hardly useful view on the use of systems thinking in the current situation was presented by Hassan et al ( 2020 ). Far more useful is the contribution on COVID‐19 management and communication with the proposed systemic stocks‐and‐flows diagram (Gonella, Casazza, Cristiano, & Romano, 2020 ). Probably the most inclusive effort to capture the complexity of the COVID‐19 crisis was made by Sahin et al ( 2020 ).…”
The COVID‐19 pandemic outbreak remains one of the most influential events in the global economy over the recent years. While being primarily public health related, it has a tremendous impact on many other aspects, including business management. Many businesses were forced to introduce rapid changes to their business models in order to survive. The aim of this paper is to show the complexity and interrelations of changes triggered by COVID‐19 outbreak. Understanding of this complexity is crucial for developing business resilience to similar events in the future. The paper uses systems thinking approach to analyze influence of COVID‐19 pandemic on business operations and to show the importance of the proper government response to the COVID‐19 crisis. A causal loop diagram is used to show the complicated mechanisms behind the impact of pandemic on several aspects of business operation and management. Perceptions of some variables play more important roles than actual variables, and it often requires more than one actor to solve a particular problem. Adaptive business management may prove to be a particular challenge for small business owners. The paper provides useful insights into the complex nature of contemporary business operation and management in the wake of a major epidemiological crisis. It may contribute to a better understanding of important factors that often tend to be disregarded and not paid enough attention to. It offers food for thought not only for academics, but also to business owners/managers, aware of the complexity of contemporary world and to government‐level decision‐makers.
“…Most public health messaging relies on an information-deficit (Baumgaertner et al, 2018) or informational flow (Gonella et al, 2020) approach to educate people on the risks and benefits of vaccination. However, the results of Study 1 demonstrate that factual information is not the only consideration driving subjects' attitudes about the COVID-19 vaccine.…”
The COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to the death of over 625,000 Americans and it continues to have monumental consequences worldwide for economic, social and individual life. An effective vaccine program is considered vital to securing collective immunity; yet, many Americans are still hesitant to be vaccinated. This two-part study first experimentally tests two message frames (inoculation vs control) designed to counter resistance to the COVID-19 vaccine with individuals who are initially supportive, neutral or opposed to it. Based on a key finding from Study 1 (that political ideology appears to be impacting receptiveness to the messaging), Study 2 examines response to these same two messages using either a politicized (Dr. Anthony Fauci) or neutral source to test the mediating effects of political ideology. Results contribute to existing literature by examining inoculation effects in a new context (“debunking” misinformation vs “prebunking” to bolster supportive attitudes), and demonstrate how psychological reactance is working in tandem with inoculation to influence attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine.
“…Testing for COVID-19 in support of large-scale public health needs, such as surveillance and mitigation, represents a quintessential complex adaptive system, as illustrated in Fig 1 . Recent scholarly work has emphasized the value of systems thinking for responding to the COVID-19 pandemic [e.g., [16][17][18][19]. The current testing response, with capacity shortages and long turnaround times, suggests gaps in operational planning and decision making that obstructed rapid and effective service delivery in a complex and somewhat weakened hybrid public/private health system.…”
Testing is critical to mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic, but testing capacity has fallen short of the need in the United States and elsewhere, and long wait times have impeded rapid isolation of cases. Operational challenges such as supply problems and personnel shortages have led to these bottlenecks and inhibited the scale-up of testing to needed levels. This paper uses operational simulations to facilitate rapid scale-up of testing capacity during this public health emergency. Specifically, discrete event simulation models were developed to represent the RT-PCR testing process in a large University of Maryland testing center, which retrofitted high-throughput molecular testing capacity to meet pandemic demands in a partnership with the State of Maryland. The simulation models support analyses that identify process steps which create bottlenecks, and evaluate “what-if” scenarios for process changes that could expand testing capacity. This enables virtual experimentation to understand the trade-offs associated with different interventions that increase testing capacity, allowing the identification of solutions that have high leverage at a feasible and acceptable cost. For example, using a virucidal collection medium which enables safe discarding of swabs at the point of collection removed a time-consuming “deswabbing” step (a primary bottleneck in this laboratory) and nearly doubled the testing capacity. The models are also used to estimate the impact of demand variability on laboratory performance and the minimum equipment and personnel required to meet various target capacities, assisting in scale-up for any laboratories following the same process steps. In sum, the results demonstrate that by using simulation modeling of the operations of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing, preparedness planners are able to identify high-leverage process changes to increase testing capacity.
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