Abstract:In 2020, the International Football Association Board (IFAB) introduced a temporary rule amendment of two additional substitutions in regular time. In this study, we assess the impact of this rule change with regard to player relief, tactical influence by the coaches and the development of young players. Data were collected from 3652 matches from the top 5 leagues in the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) rankings and 659 UEFA club competition matches (Champions League and Europa League) in 2 diffe… Show more
“…This means that the 5-subsitution rule may lead to a higher overall running performance [ 19 , 32 ], but this change is related to the number as well as the type of substitutions being made [ 20 ]. In addition, coaches may use substitutions to reduce the load of team [ 18 , 21 ], which is extremely important to maintain the physical condition of the whole team in the World Cup with a congested schedule.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Despite the fact that the substitutes come on to the pitch with a greater running intensity, their overall game load is considerably lower than that of the starters due to the lower playing time [ 16 , 17 ]. More recently, studies have shown that teams under the new substitution rule have an overall increase in running performance while the team load and RPE decrease [ 18 – 21 ], which is especially important during congested fixtures [ 22 ], indicating the importance of using multiple substitutions. In fact, the data from the 2022 World Cup shows that there was no reduction in high-intensity running by teams in the second half [ 23 ], in contrast to the results from previous World Cups [ 24 ].…”
Substitutions play a key role in modern football and can substantially affect the physical and overall performance of a team, and the recent substitution rule changes are worth investigating. This study explored the characteristics of substitutions, including different substitution rules, game results, sex, competition stages, tournaments and penalty shoot-outs success rates. We analysed data from a total of 3,738 substitutions from the last 10 years (2013–2023) of European Championships and World Cups, both men’s and women’s games. Non-parametric tests and chi-square tests were used for statistical analysis with the significance level set at p < 0.05. With the 5-substitution rule, 48% more substitutions occurred compared to the 3-substitution rule (4.26 ± 1.07 vs. 2.87 ± 0.43, p < 0.05) with a slight increase in the average substitution time (70.6 ± 14.3 vs. 69.2 ± 14.6 min, p < 0.05), and 10% more substitutions in the men’s game compared to the women’s game (p < 0.05). The timing of the first substitution was slightly different in the knock-out stage compared to group stage (59.8 ± 14.7 vs. 57.2 ± 13.3 min, p < 0.05), and the timing for the winning team and drawing team was later than for the losing team (p < 0.05). A total of 13.2% goals were scored by substitutes, with no significant difference between the 5-substitution rule (15.9%) vs the 3-substition rule (12.5%) (p > 0.05). Interestingly, substitute players had a lower success rate in penalty shoot-out compared to starters (61 vs. 74%, p < 0.05). Additionally, substitute player goal scorers entered the pitch later (p < 0.05) in male games compared to female games and in knock-out stage games compared to group games. This study highlights the importance of substitution rules and timing in modern elite football matches. The timing of the first substitution, introduction of substitutes in knock-out stages, and a lower success rate of substitute players in penalty shoot-outs are crucial factors to consider. Coaches can use this information to make strategic substitution decisions to improve team performance.
“…This means that the 5-subsitution rule may lead to a higher overall running performance [ 19 , 32 ], but this change is related to the number as well as the type of substitutions being made [ 20 ]. In addition, coaches may use substitutions to reduce the load of team [ 18 , 21 ], which is extremely important to maintain the physical condition of the whole team in the World Cup with a congested schedule.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Despite the fact that the substitutes come on to the pitch with a greater running intensity, their overall game load is considerably lower than that of the starters due to the lower playing time [ 16 , 17 ]. More recently, studies have shown that teams under the new substitution rule have an overall increase in running performance while the team load and RPE decrease [ 18 – 21 ], which is especially important during congested fixtures [ 22 ], indicating the importance of using multiple substitutions. In fact, the data from the 2022 World Cup shows that there was no reduction in high-intensity running by teams in the second half [ 23 ], in contrast to the results from previous World Cups [ 24 ].…”
Substitutions play a key role in modern football and can substantially affect the physical and overall performance of a team, and the recent substitution rule changes are worth investigating. This study explored the characteristics of substitutions, including different substitution rules, game results, sex, competition stages, tournaments and penalty shoot-outs success rates. We analysed data from a total of 3,738 substitutions from the last 10 years (2013–2023) of European Championships and World Cups, both men’s and women’s games. Non-parametric tests and chi-square tests were used for statistical analysis with the significance level set at p < 0.05. With the 5-substitution rule, 48% more substitutions occurred compared to the 3-substitution rule (4.26 ± 1.07 vs. 2.87 ± 0.43, p < 0.05) with a slight increase in the average substitution time (70.6 ± 14.3 vs. 69.2 ± 14.6 min, p < 0.05), and 10% more substitutions in the men’s game compared to the women’s game (p < 0.05). The timing of the first substitution was slightly different in the knock-out stage compared to group stage (59.8 ± 14.7 vs. 57.2 ± 13.3 min, p < 0.05), and the timing for the winning team and drawing team was later than for the losing team (p < 0.05). A total of 13.2% goals were scored by substitutes, with no significant difference between the 5-substitution rule (15.9%) vs the 3-substition rule (12.5%) (p > 0.05). Interestingly, substitute players had a lower success rate in penalty shoot-out compared to starters (61 vs. 74%, p < 0.05). Additionally, substitute player goal scorers entered the pitch later (p < 0.05) in male games compared to female games and in knock-out stage games compared to group games. This study highlights the importance of substitution rules and timing in modern elite football matches. The timing of the first substitution, introduction of substitutes in knock-out stages, and a lower success rate of substitute players in penalty shoot-outs are crucial factors to consider. Coaches can use this information to make strategic substitution decisions to improve team performance.
Background
The increase in the number of substitutions allowed in football from three to five has profoundly influenced the game. The impact of the rule change on the FIFA World Cup needs further verification.
Methods
A total of 2,151 team substitution opportunities and 2,410 substitutions in 384 matches from six FIFA World Cups (2002–2022) were analyzed to assess its impact. One-way ANOVA was used to assess differences in average substitution times among the six FIFA World Cups. Factors affecting the time of substitutions were explored using Generalized Linear Mixed Models.
Results
In each FIFA World Cup, over 92% of substitutions occurred during half-time and the second half, with a higher proportion in knockout stage matches than group stage matches. Group stage substitutions tended to happen earlier, particularly when teams were losing. As allowed substitutions increased, multiple substitutions in one opportunity rose from 4% to 38%. Of the 2,410 substitutions in the six FIFA World Cups, 21.45% were offensive, 63.65% were neutral and 14.90% were defensive. Winning teams made the highest percentage of defensive substitutions, while drawing or losing teams made the highest percentage of offensive substitutions. Match status significantly affected the time of the first three substitutions, and the presence of extra time significantly affected the time of the fourth substitution.
Conclusion
Analysis of substitutions in FIFA World Cups (2002–2022) reveals: Most substitutions occur during halftime and the second half; Substitutions are earlier in group stages, especially for losing teams; Increased allowed substitutions lead to more multiple-player substitutions; Defensive substitutions are more common when winning, while offensive ones are frequent when drawing or losing; Match status, ranking gap, extra time, game round, and substitution rules significantly influence the time of team substitutions.
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