Addition of Kidney Dysfunction Type to MELD-Na for the Prediction of Survival in Cirrhotic Patients Awaiting Liver Transplantation in Comparison with MELD 3.0 with Albumin

Abstract

It is well known that renal dysfunction has a devastating effect on the prognosis of liver cirrhosis. In this study, the aim was to assess whether the incorporation of the kidney dysfunction type into the MELD-Na score enhances its predictive capacity for outcomes in patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT), compared to utilizing the MELD 3.0 score with albumin. In total, 2080 patients awaiting the LT were enrolled at two tertiary care institutions in Korea. Discrimination abilities were analyzed by using Harrell’s c-index and iAUC values between MELD-Na-kidney dysfunction type (MELD-Na-KT) and MELD 3.0 with albumin. Clinical endpoints encompassed 3-month survival, 3-month transplant-free survival (TFS), overall survival (OS), and total TFS. Out of the total of 2080 individuals, 669 (32.16%) were male. Regarding the types of renal function impairment, 1614 (77.6%) were in the normal group, 112 (5.38%) in the AKD group, 320 (15.35%) in the CKD group, and 34 (1.63%) were in the AKD on CKD group. MELD 3.0 with albumin showed better discrimination (c-index = 0.714) compared to MELD-Na-KT (c-index = 0.708) in predicting 3-month survival. Similar results were observed for OS, 3-month TFS, and total TFS as well. When divided by sex, MELD 3.0 with albumin showed the comparable prediction of 3-month survival to MELD-Na-KT (c-index 0.675 vs. 0.671, p-value 0.221) in males. However, in the female group, MELD 3.0 with albumin demonstrated better results compared to MELD-Na-KT (c-index 0.733 vs. 0.723, p-value 0.001). The integration of kidney dysfunction types into the MELD-Na did not yield superior prognostic results compared to the MELD 3.0 score with albumin. Rather, in the female group, the MELD 3.0 score with albumin was better able to predict survival. These findings suggest that laboratory values pertaining to liver dysfunction or creatinine levels may be more significant than the type of kidney dysfunction when predicting the short-term prognosis of LT candidates.