Added value from 576 years of tree-ring records in the prediction of the Great Salt Lake level

Feasibility of Multi-Year Forecast for the Colorado River Water Supply: Time Series Modeling

“…Likewise, the three-year and six-year lags in GSL are coincident with a quarter-phase and half-phase of the energetic~12-year cycle, respectively, that characterizes the Great Basin precipitation (Smith et al 2015, Wang et al 2009 [25,26]. Previous time-series modeling in predicting the GSL level by (Gillies et al 2015(Gillies et al , 2011 [10,11] have pointed out similar connections with the notable climate cycles in this region. These results are in line with previous finding by (Switanek and Troch 2011) [27] that it is possible to forecast Colorado River streamflow at the decadal timescale by using ocean-atmosphere teleconnections.…”

“…The GSL water level variation is coherent with the low-frequency variation of the Colorado River WS (Wang et al 2018) [7]. Meanwhile, past studies (Gillies et al 2015, Gillies et al 2011 [10,11] have developed time series modeling to anticipate the GSL water level out to 5-10 years. Predictability of streamflow and water storage at decadal timescale was reported elsewhere, such as the Missouri River basin (Neri et al 2018;Wang et al 2014) [12,13].…”

“…Ten-Year Moving-Average ARMAX (13,10,7,0) One of the ARMAX models chosen had an ARMA (13, 10) base, and it includes 7 GSL elevation lags. The model equation is…”

“…Ten-Year Moving-Average ARMAX (19,10,7,0) The other competitive ARMAX model for the ten-year moving-average WS also included 7 GSL lags and had an ARMA (19,10) base. The equation is estimated as…”

Great Salt Lake (Utah) Microbialite δ13C, δ18O, and δ15N Record Fluctuations in Lake Biogeochemistry Since the Late Pleistocene

“…Great Salt Lake (GSL), Utah, is a hypersaline closed‐basin lake that hosts one of the largest deposits of calcareous lacustrine microbialites on Earth (Figure ; Baskin, ; Eardley, ). In 2015–2016, shoreline microbialite deposits were exposed as the lake occupied historically low levels due to combined climatic and anthropogenic factors (Gilles et al, ; Mann et al, ). The microbial and algal community on the surface of submerged microbialites contribute to lake primary production and support critical food sources for GSL‐dependent bird populations (Wurtsbaugh et al, ).…”