Adaptive Two-Player Hierarchical Holographic Modeling Game for Counterterrorism Intelligence Analysis

A Survey of Operations Research Models and Applications in Homeland Security

“…They prioritize sectors based on the economic impact of terrorist activities. Haimes and Horowitz (2004) modeled counterterrorism intelligence using a two-player hierarchical holographic modeling game. Kaplan et al (2005) introduced a terror-stock model that estimates the size of terrorist groups and how that size changes when the terrorists themselves are attacked.…”

Risks of Terrorism to Information Technology and to Critical Interdependent Infrastructures

“…The expected value of risk is (for the discrete case) the summation of the products of the consequences and the corresponding probabilities of all possible events (scenarios). This expected value has significant limitations, or may even be an erroneous metric of risk, for events of catastrophic consequences and low or not-unlikely probability [Haimes 2004, Haimes et al 2004a. This observation is particularly relevant and important for risks of terrorism, such as the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.…”

“…In such cases, the probability of a terrorist attack may be represented by two surrogate measures: the intent and capability of the would-be terrorist. To better appreciate the discussion on risk management of extreme and catastrophic consequences, it is constructive to relate the centrality of state variables to the following terms [Haimes 2004, andHorowitz 2004]:…”

Risk Analysis in Interdependent Infrastructures

“…The models provide descriptions of the state of the system and how changing the system state can reduce the likelihood of adverse consequences, thereby providing a means for evaluating the efficacy of different risk management options. This section describes several methodologies for analyzing interdependent systems: (i) the Input-output Inoperability Model (IIM) [9,19] and its derivatives, the Multi-Regional IIM (MR-IIM) developed by Crowther [2], and the Dynamic IIM (DIIM) developed by Lian and Haimes [16]; (ii) the Hierarchical Holographic Model (HHM) developed by Haimes [4] and its derivatives, the Adaptive Multi-Player HHM (AMP-HHM) developed by Haimes and Horowitz [7], and the Risk Filtering and Ranking Method (RFRM) developed by Haimes, Kaplan and Lambert [10]; (iii) the Hierarchical Coordinated Bayesian Model (HCBM) being developed by Yan, Haimes and Waller [20]; and (iv) the Network Security Risk Model (NSRM) being developed by Henry and Haimes [11,12]. …”

“…The Adaptive Multi-Player HHM (AMP-HHM) [7] and the Risk Filtering and Ranking Method (RFRM) [10], which are derived from HHM, provide more extensive frameworks for collaborative and resource allocation analyses, respectively. In particular, AMP-HHM is a framework for making more structured use of experts with different points of view when analyzing risk in specific assets or classes of systems.…”