Adaptive Short-Term Forecasting of Hourly Loads Using Weather Information

Research into the influence of climatic factors on the losses of electric energy in overhead power transmission lines

“…[2,4,8,10]. In [2] it is proposed to better take into account climatic factors, the author [4] proposes to take into account topographic conditions of the terrain, which are directly related to certain climatic factors, in [5], consideration of climatic factors is proposed to replace by defined coefficients, the author [6] offers adaptive short-term forecasting of loads using the weather conditions, ref. [7] proposes short-term forecasting of electric load of the power system dependent on the model of weather.…”

“…According to the Ukrainian [2][3][4] and international experts [5][6][7][8], power losses at its transmission and distribution in electrical networks may be considered satisfactory if they do not exceed 4-5 % while at the level of 10 % as maximum permissible from the standpoint of physics of electricity transmission networks.…”

“…Sharp aggravation of the problem of reducing energy losses in electric networks requires an active search for new ways of its solution, new approaches to the selection of appropriate measures, to the organization of work to reduce the losses [1,4,6,8]. The world experience shows that in the countries with economy in crisis the losses of electricity in networks tend to grow, which is confirmed in Ukraine, where in many energy systems the losses of electricity grow even when energy consumption reduces [2,3,7].…”

Un modèle de prévision à court-terme

“…Les prédictions obtenues par ces quatre modèles et leurs variances respectives seront ensuite combinées d'une façon optimale suivant la méthode exposée en référence [1]. Le résultat est équivalent à celui obtenu par une somme pondérée, les poids étant inversement proportionnels aux variances respectives, l'inverse de la variance de la moyenne pondérée étant égale à la somme des inverses des variances.…”

“…-des modèles où la charge dépend à la fois du temps et des conditions météorologiques (Gupta et Yameda) [1]; -des modèles qui évaluent séparément la charge due aux conditions météorologiques ce qui suppose connue la quantité d'énergie consommée par le chauffage, la climatisation, etc. (CE.…”