Adaptive optimal allocation of water resources response to future water availability and water demand in the Han River basin, China

Abstract

Global warming and anthropogenic changes can result in the heterogeneity of water availability in the spatiotemporal scale, which will further affect the allocation of water resources. A lot of researches have been devoted to examining the responses of water availability to global warming while neglected future anthropogenic changes. What’s more, only a few studies have investigated the response of optimal allocation of water resources to the projected climate and anthropogenic changes. In this study, a cascade model chain is developed to evaluate the impacts of projected climate change and human activities on optimal allocation of water resources. Firstly, a large set of global climate models (GCMs) associated with the Daily Bias Correction (DBC) method are employed to project future climate scenarios, while the Cellular Automaton–Markov (CA–Markov) model is used to project future Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) scenarios. Then the runoff simulation is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model with necessary inputs under the future conditions. Finally, the optimal water resources allocation model is established based on the evaluation of water supply and water demand. The Han River basin in China was selected as a case study. The results show that: (1) the annual runoff indicates an increasing trend in the future in contrast with the base period, while the ascending rate of the basin under RCP 4.5 is 4.47%; (2) a nonlinear relationship has been identified between the optimal allocation of water resources and water availability, while a linear association exists between the former and water demand; (3) increased water supply are needed in the water donor area, the middle and lower reaches should be supplemented with 4.495 billion m3 water in 2030. This study provides an example of a management template for guiding the allocation of water resources, and improves understandings of the assessments of water availability and demand at a regional or national scale.

Nonstationary Design Flood Estimation in Response to Climate Change, Population Growth and Cascade Reservoir Regulation

“…(4) Future daily precipitation is simulated by GCM using climate change scenarios [75]. Our lab research team, Tian et al (2021) used 10 different GCMs (see Table 4) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of 4.5 and 8.5 from the IPCC Fifth Assessment to project climate change for the Han River basin, which are employed in this study [76][77][78]. The RCP 4.5 scenario represents a future of medium emission where climate policies limit [79].…”

Assessing Ecological Infrastructure Investments—A Case Study of Water Rights Trading in Lu’an City, Anhui Province, China

“…When it comes to demand for ecosystem services, scholars mostly analyze from the perspective of whether the supply and demand of ecosystem services are balanced [34][35][36]. In terms of demand for aquatic ecological products, there are many studies on the prediction of water resources demand for regional economic development [37][38][39][40]. To make water resources meet the needs of economic development, water-saving irrigation infrastructure is gradually being developed and constructed, because farmland irrigation has greater watersaving potential.…”

Optimal Allocation of Resources for the Integrated Medical Care and Elderly Care Model under Dynamic Monitoring

“…e combined medical care and elderly care model is a new elderly care service model that conforms to the needs of the times, solves the dilemma of medical care and elderly care for the elderly, and integrates life service and rehabilitation health care [4,5]. e combined medical care and elderly care model is an effective model to improve the medical treatment and elderly care of the elderly, and reasonable resource allocation is the key link of the efficient combination of "medical care" and "elderly care" [6,7]. However, there is a serious imbalance between supply and demand and unequal distribution of resources.…”