Adaptive invasive species distribution models: a framework for modeling incipient invasions

Abstract

The utilization of species distribution model(s) (SDM) for approximating, explaining, and predicting changes in species' geographic locations is increasingly promoted for proactive ecological management. Although frameworks for modeling non-invasive species distributions are relatively well developed, their counterparts for invasive species-which may not be at equilibrium within recipient environments and often exhibit rapid transformations-are lacking. Additionally, adaptive ecological management strategies address the causes and effects of biological invasions and other complex issues in social-ecological systems. We conducted a review of biological invasions, species distribution models, and adaptive practices in ecological management, and developed a framework for adaptive, niche-based, invasive species distribution model (iSDM) development and utilization. This iterative, 10-step framework promotes consistency and transparency in iSDM development, allows for changes in invasive drivers and filters, integrates mechanistic and correlative modeling techniques, balances the avoidance of type 1 and type 2 errors in predictions, encourages the linking of monitoring and management actions, and facilitates incremental improvements in models and management across space, time, and institutional boundaries. These improvements are useful for advancing coordinated invasive species modeling, management and monitoring from local scales to the regional, continental and global scales at which biological invasions occur and harm native ecosystems and economies, as well as for anticipating and responding to biological invasions under continuing global change.

A quantitative framework for assessing ecological resilience

“…These tests offer the insight necessary for promoting adaptive and proactive management and monitoring approaches. Our hypothesis framework can be implemented within the context of adaptive management (Allen et al 2011), inference (Holling and Allen 2002), and modeling (Uden et al 2015) for revealing, refining, understanding, and ultimately managing general ecosystem resilience. Testing all hypotheses simultaneously is not feasible in most management situations because of the lack of monitoring data that is needed for assessing temporal dimensions to resilience aspects such as engineering resilience, persistence, variability, resistance, or threshold dynamics.…”

Unveiling the status of alien animals in the arid zone of Asia

“…Monitoring their population dynamics and impacts will help for surveillance and timely eradication. Furthermore, we called for applications of risk assessment tools, for example, horizon scanning (Roy et al, 2014) and adaptive modelling (Uden et al, 2015) based on ecological niche models (ENMs, Jiménez-Valverde et al, 2011), to predict the hazards posed by alien species, especially those with no prior invasion history in Xinjiang, as well as the vulnerability of native biodiversity to emerging disturbance. The tools will contribute to prioritization of risks brought by alien species for developing management strategies on animal invasions through systematically examining potential threats and opportunities in the future.…”

Thermal Tolerance Limits of the Chinese Mystery Snail (Bellamya chinensis): Implications for Management

“…Identifying the thermal limits of aquatic invasive species is important for both managing and preventing their introduction, establishment, and spread (Rahel and Olden 2008, Gallardo and Aldridge 2013, Kelley 2014. Once identifi ed, the upper and lower thermal tolerance temperatures can be used to inform the development and refi nement of invasive species distribution models (Uden et al 2015), which can be used to explain variability and predict changes in invasive species' geographic distributions.…”