Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China

Abstract

Abstract:To improve adaptive capacity and further strengthen the role of irrigation in mitigating climate change impacts, the Chinese government has planned to expand irrigated areas by 4.4% by the 2030s. Examining the adaptive potential of irrigated area expansion under climate change is therefore critical. Here, we assess the effects of irrigated area expansion on crop yields based on county-level data during 1980-2011 in northern China and estimate climate impacts under irrigated area scenarios in the 2030s. Based on regression analysis, there is a statistically significant effect of irrigated area expansion on reducing negative climate impacts. More irrigated areas indicate less heat and drought impacts. Irrigated area expansion will alleviate yield reduction by 0.7-0.8% in the future but associated yield benefits will still not compensate for greater adverse climate impacts. Yields are estimated to decrease by 4.0-6.5% under future climate conditions when an additional 4.4% of irrigated area is established, and no fundamental yield increase with an even further 10% or 15% expansion of irrigated area is predicted. This finding suggests that expected adverse climate change risks in the 2030s cannot be mitigated by expanding irrigated areas. A combination of this and other adaptation programs is needed to guarantee grain production under more serious drought stresses in the future.

Performance of community-based water-saving technology under land fragmentation: evidence from groundwater overexploitation in the North China Plain

“…With the available groundwater resources becoming scarce with an increasing temperature, there is an urgent need to improve irrigation efficiency (Gou et al, 2020). Farmers also need to take adaptive measures by increasing irrigation frequency and expanding irrigated areas to mitigate production risks resulting from extreme drought events (Zhang et al, 2017;Wang et al, 2018Wang et al, , 2019aWang et al, , 2019bZhang et al, 2020). Rapid urbanization and industrialization will increasingly use more water and decreasing water resources will force agriculture to reduce its water usage.…”

Innovation Model of Agricultural Technologies Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets

“…Mottaleb et al [28] investigated over 800,000 farmers in Bangladesh on machinery adoption and found out that physical assets, institutional and physical infrastructure positively affect adoption. It is the same with the irrigation system [29]. Also, women farmers are less likely to own agricultural assets than men.…”

Energy and Water Related Parameters in Tomato and Cucumber Greenhouse Crops in Semiarid Mediterranean Regions. A Review, Part I: Increasing Energy Efficiency

“…A considerable amount of research work conducted in recent years has evaluated the effect of VPD on transpiration, plant grown and production, and water productivity. VPD has been widely recognized as the driving force of water loss from a leaf and a parameter describing the climate conditions favorable for the development of fungal crop diseases and several crop physiological disorders [72,73]. Optimal VPD values for tomato and cucumber are suggested to be in the range of 0.3 to 1.0 kPa [52].…”