Here we propose an exact formalism, off-shell effective energy theory (OET), which provides a thermodynamic description of a generic quantum Hamiltonian. The OET is based on a partitioning of the Hamiltonian and a corresponding density matrix ansatz constructed from an off-shell extension of the equilibrium density matrix; and there are dual realizations based on a given partitioning. To approximate OET, we introduce the central point expansion (CPE), which is an expansion of the density matrix ansatz, and we renormalize the CPE using a standard expansion of the ground state energy. We showcase the OET for the one band Hubbard model in d=1, 2, and ∞, using a partitioning between kinetic and potential energy, yielding two realizations denoted as K and X . OET shows favorable agreement with exact or state-of-the-art results over all parameter space, and has a negligible computational cost. Physically, K describes the Fermi liquid, while X gives an analogous description of both the Luttinger liquid and the Mott insulator. Our approach should find broad applicability in lattice model Hamiltonians, in addition to real materials systems.