Adaptive changes in sexual behavior in the high‐risk population in response to human monkeypox transmission in Canada can help control the outbreak: Insights from a two‐group, two‐route epidemic model

Abstract

Monkeypox, a zoonotic disease, is emerging as a potential sexually transmitted infection/disease, with underlying transmission mechanisms still unclear. We devised a risk-structured, compartmental model, incorporating sexual behavior dynamics. We compared different strategies targeting the high-risk population: a scenario of control policies geared toward the use of condoms and/or sexual abstinence (robust control strategy) with risk compensation behavior change, and a scenario of control strategies with behavior change in response to the doubling rate (adaptive control strategy). Monkeypox's basic reproduction number is 1.464, 0.0066, and 1.461 in the high-risk, low-risk, and total populations, respectively, with the high-risk group being the major driver of monkeypox spread. Policies imposing condom use or sexual abstinence need to achieve a 35% minimum compliance rate to stop further transmission, while a combination of both can curb the spread with 10% compliance to abstinence and 25% to condom use. With risk compensation, the only option is to impose sexual abstinence by at least 35%. Adaptive control is more effective than robust control where the daily sexual contact number is reduced proportionally and remains constant thereafter, shortening the time to epidemic peak, lowering its size, facilitating disease attenuation, and playing a key role in controlling the current outbreak.

Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study

“…CN pop = 38, 929, 902 is the total population of Canada at the beginning of the 2022–2023 mpox outbreak in Canada (Population and total). Parameter Description Value Source p m Mpox transmission probability per contact 0.1–0.9 ( Adam et al., 2023 ; Beer and Rao, 2019 ; Luigi Bragazzi et al., 2023 ; Miura et al., 2022 ; Spicknall et al., 2022 ) c Average per capita sexual contact per unit time day −1 Luigi Bragazzi et al. (2023) p h HIV transmission probability per contact 0.0011 − 0.039 ( Lima et al., 2021 ; Tollett et al., 2024 ) ν Condom compliance rate Varied – ɛ Condom efficacy 0.92 Mukandavire et al.…”

“…Mathematical models have also been devised to study, track, and predict the dynamics of STIs and assess the effectiveness of packages of public health interventions ( Ferguson and Garnett, 2000 ). In the last years, some mathematical models have been developed to study the transmission dynamics of mpox ( Bisanzio and Reithinger, 2022 ; Bragazzi et al., 2022 ; Endo et al., 2022 ; Luigi Bragazzi et al., 2023 ; NO et al., 2020 ; Peter et al., 2021 ; Usman Isa Adamu et al., 2017 ; Vibhaav Bankuru et al., 2020 ; Yuan et al., 2022 ). Models to understand the co-interaction of mpox with other diseases have also been investigated ( Bhunu et al., 2012 ; Ifeanyi Marcus et al., 2024 ; Odiba Peace et al., 2024 ; Zhang et al., 2023 ).…”

Monkeypox: a review of epidemiological modelling studies and how modelling has led to mechanistic insight

“…They show their pair-formation model captures population trends in data with an estimated R 0 of 2.3, and they further predict the occurrence of future waves of infection. Similarly, Bragazzi et al [ 61 ] develop a SEIQR model that includes the sexual behaviour of high-risk individuals and find that R 0 amongst the high-risk population to be ∼1.5, whereas amongst the low-risk population to be as low as 0.007 [ 61 ]. Modelling has also been used to disentangle the many factors leading the decline of mpox in the 2022 outbreak.…”

Modelling the impact of human behavior using a two-layer Watts-Strogatz network for transmission and control of Mpox

“…Based on the assumption that each individual has an equal probability of contacting others, compartmental SIR and SEIR models are used to model the transmission dynamics of Mpox between humans and animals. The results show the conditions for both local and global stability using the Lyapunov functions and center manifold theory [5][6][7][8][9][10]. In addition, compartmental models reveal that mitigation measures can curb the spread of Mpox, and the epidemic dies out when the basic reproduction number drops below one in humans and animals [11].…”