Adapting to climate change: Agricultural system and household impacts in East Africa

Thornton, Philip K.; Jones, Peter G.; Alagarswamy, G.; Andresen, Jeff; Herrero, Mario

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2009.09.003

Cited by 202 publications

(110 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…High population growth rates may almost triple the demand for food up to 2050. The consequence is more demand for land both from an urbanization perspective (in direct competition with land for earthen ponds) as well as from a food production perspective (Thornton et al 2010). Moreover, for the last 30 years the average land holding has declined (ranging between 0.2 and 2.5 ha per capita) (Immink et al 2001).…”

Section: Geography and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

From aid to responsible trade: driving competitive aquaculture sector development in Kenya : Quick scan of robustness, reliability and resilience of the aquaculture sector

Obwanga¹,

Lewo

Bolman³

et al. 2017

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This report provides an overview of how the Kenyan aquaculture sector performs in three analytical domains: the robustness of the supply chain, the reliability of institutional governance and the resilience of the innovation system. Analysis is based on literature review, stakeholder interviews and a validation workshop guided by a SWOT framework to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. The findings inform on the existing opportunities and challenges that potentially influence growth in the aquaculture sector. The report is a first step towards documenting and sharing insights that support the move towards a more Robust, Reliable and Resilient (3R) aquaculture sector. The findings and recommendations presented may guide policy engagement and action in the transition of Dutch government bilateral engagement in Kenya from development aid-support to a trade-oriented approach, with a focus on partnership opportunities to drive competitive market-oriented aquaculture sector development that attracts private investments. The user may copy, distribute and transmit the work and create derivative works. Third-party material that has been used in the work and to which intellectual property rights apply may not be used without prior permission of the third party concerned. The user must specify the name as stated by the author or licence holder of the work, but not in such a way as to give the impression that the work of the user or the way in which the work has been used are being endorsed. The user may not use this work for commercial purposes. Executive summaryThe 3R (Robust, Reliable and Resilient) project assists the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Kenya in the transition from aid to trade. The project investigates whether the lessons from the development aid era can be transferred and scaled up in the upcoming transition to a trade era. The overall aim of the 3R Kenya project is to enable well-informed stakeholder actions that support the transition from development aid to sustainable trade (people, planet, profit) in the aquaculture, dairy and horticulture sectors. This quick scan focuses on the aquaculture sector.The 3Rs have been defined as follows:• Robust supply chain integration refers to efficient and trusted interactions between supply chain partners that reduce transaction costs and the risks involved in enhancing product quality and safety and reinforcing sustainability.• Reliable institutional governance refers to public-private cooperation, co-innovation and a public economic policy framework that supports private investment and enhances opportunities for (inter)national trade.• Resilient innovation systems (research, extension and projects) are those with dynamic adaptive capacities that enable agents and systems to adequately respond to changing circumstances.This report covers the topic of freshwater aquaculture relating to the cultivation of fish in Kenya. The main species of study are the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and African catfish (Clarias gariepinus)....

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Section: Geography and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

From aid to responsible trade: driving competitive aquaculture sector development in Kenya : Quick scan of robustness, reliability and resilience of the aquaculture sector

Obwanga¹,

Lewo

Bolman³

et al. 2017

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“…During some periods, inter-annual rainfall variability is extreme, leading to heavy downpours and/or prolonged dry periods, often linked to the ENSO (Ogallo 1997;McHugh 2006). Despite the generally complex climate parameters involved in analyzing rainfall dynamics in the LVB, recent regional climate studies have successfully identified an overall increasing trend indicating a rise in rainfall, specifically during the short rainy season (Kizza et al 2009;Thornton et al 2010). Our own analysis based on time series on monthly rainfall from two stations and used as a proxy for the study sites in Kenya and Tanzania, although not always uniform across the two, indicate a similar pattern, specifically during the short rainy season.…”

Section: Locating Exposuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Living without buffers—illustrating climate vulnerability in the Lake Victoria basin

2012

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Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are essential, albeit theoretically vague, components of climate vulnerability. This has triggered debate surrounding how these factors can be translated into, and understood in, an empirical context subject to present and future harm. In this article, which draws on extensive fieldwork in the Lake Victoria Basin of Kenya and Tanzania, we illustrate how exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity play out in the context of climate vulnerability and discuss how they interact in situ. Using a mixed methods approach including survey data, rainfall data and a suite of participatory methods, such as focus groups and interactive mapping of seasonal calendars, we identify how climate-induced stressors affect smallholder farmers' well-being and natural resources. Drawing on the seasonal calendar as a heuristic, and climate vulnerability terminology, we illustrate when, where and how these climate-induced stressors converge to constrain farmers' livelihoods. Our analysis indicates that farmers in the basin face a highly uncertain future with discernible, but differentiated, adaptation deficits due to recurring, and potentially worsening, patterns of hardship.

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“…Although Ethiopia is considered to be relatively water abundant, interannual and spatial variability of rainfall is high, rendering large parts of the country prone to drought and food insecurity. Meanwhile, rapid population growth and economic development is increasing the demand for food and water (World Bank 2008;Thornton et al 2010). Thus, understanding and accurately predicting precipitation are especially important for enacting effective climate change adaptation policies and enhancing sustainability in this region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

Ballard

et al. 2015

Clim Dyn

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over central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, but a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of the country. Such a dipole pattern is attributable to the intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in a warmer climate, which influences Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation mainly by modulating atmospheric vertical motion. Diagnosis of the omega equation demonstrates that an intensified NASH increases (decreases) the advection of warm air and positive vorticity into the central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley (southern part of the country), enhancing upward motion over the northern Rift Valley but decreasing elsewhere. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the high-resolution models project an intensification of the NASH by 15 (3 × 10 5 m 2 s −2 ) geopotential meters (stream function) at the 850-hPa level, contributing to the projected precipitation change over Ethiopia. The influence of the NASH on Kiremtseason precipitation becomes more evident in the future due to the offsetting effects of two other major circulation systems: the East African Low-level Jet (EALLJ) and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). The high-resolution models project a strengthening of the EALLJ, but a weakening of the TEJ. Future changes in the EALLJ and TEJ will drive this precipitation system in opposite directions, leading to small or no net changes in precipitation in Ethiopia.

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Adapting to climate change: Agricultural system and household impacts in East Africa

Cited by 202 publications

References 31 publications

From aid to responsible trade: driving competitive aquaculture sector development in Kenya : Quick scan of robustness, reliability and resilience of the aquaculture sector

From aid to responsible trade: driving competitive aquaculture sector development in Kenya : Quick scan of robustness, reliability and resilience of the aquaculture sector

Living without buffers—illustrating climate vulnerability in the Lake Victoria basin

CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

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