Adapting spatial conditions to reduce car dependency in mid-sized ‘post growth’ European city regions: The case of South Limburg, Netherlands

Abstract

Defining Car Dependency (CD) as a lack of travel choices to daily destinations, this paper explores how possible changes in the spatial context of a post-growth, mid-sized urban region can affect the conditions for CD. In the most rural parts of the region distances to schools and shops will exceed walking and biking distances. Distances to work will increase on average. With the bicycle and e-bicycle fewer jobs will be accessible, although the ebicycle shows greater reach than public transport. Despite the population and job decline, more jobs will be accessible by car, as a result of current investments in road infrastructure. This is enhanced by the ongoing development of economic centers along the highways, resulting in a growing mismatch between the rail system and the spatial economic structure of the region. We developed policy scenarios to explore spatial conditions for reducing car-dependence within the region. Intensifying land uses along the axes of public transport has a limited effect in a shrinking region. Introducing direct and fast public transport connections to the existing economic centers however does have effect. We tested two transport policy scenarios, one based on improving Inter City (IC) rail services on the existing rail network and one based on creating Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) services on the existing highways. The IC-scenario makes more jobs accessible outside the current daily urban system, while the BRT-scenario intensifies relations within the region. With regards to CD 'three worlds' seem to be emerging in this medium-sized, 'post growth' region. Rural areas (10-15% of the population in 2030) are increasingly becoming completely car dependent, suburban areas (65-75% of the population) are offering travel choices to daily amenities, but increasingly becoming more car dependent in relation to jobs, and central urban areas (15-20% of the population) are providing travel choices to amenities as well as jobs, but only under the condition of improving the regional public transport system.

Spatial conditions for car dependency in mid-sized European city regions

“…outside of the summer months or when it rains). In this case, the bus would be a realistic alternative; however, from previous research (Wiersma, Bertolini, and Straatemeier 2017) it appeared that in Dutch midsized city regions comparable with our three cases, more jobs were accessible by ebicycle than by public transport in the same door-to door travel time. Compared to the (e-) bicycle longer door-to door travel times by public transport must be assumed, raising questions about the competitiveness of this option.…”

“…First notable attempts focused on the Netherlands (Wiersma et al 2016(Wiersma et al , 2017Wiersma 2020), and the paper expands this research at the European level, by focusing on mid-sized urban and suburban areas in different European countries. The expanded scope is valuable for several reasons.…”

“…This is due to the low shares of workplaces situated near stations (19% to 35%) and of inhabitants living within bicycle distance from stations (50%), which severely restrict the travel mode choice for daily commutes. The most obvious policy implication would be the concentration of specialized jobs near railway stations (TOD) or providing BRT services to campuses and research centres at highway locations (Wiersma, Bertolini, and Straatemeier 2017;Goudappel 2015).…”

“…However, distances might increase as a result of upscaling processes (i.e. a shift towards fewer and larger schools and supermarkets), especially in post-growth or shrinking regions (Wiersma, Bertolini, and Straatemeier 2017). This threat stresses the importance of avoiding such a possible ongoing upscaling of daily amenities.…”

In search of sustainable and inclusive mobility solutions for rural areas

“…Rural areas are defined as areas with less than 300 persons per km 2 [ 27 ] and are hence characterised by low population density. Furthermore, due to widespread urbanisation, rural areas often face decreasing and ageing populations [ 28 ] alongside the withdrawal of jobs, shops, services, and schools [ 29 , 30 ]. At the same time, rural areas often function as hinterlands to urban cores to which jobs, education, services, and leisure are concentrated.…”