Adaptation to the Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture by Rural Farmers in North-Western Nigeria

Abstract

The impact of climatic variations on crop yields and the adaptation by farmers in north-western Nigeria are examined using the modeling approach and farm surveys. Accordingly, regression models which relate climate data to crop yields were constructed. The results showed that rainfall has a positive relationship with crop yields in the region and explained over 70 percent of the variations in the yields of sorghum, millet and maize, all of which were significant at the 0.05 level. Evaporation also had a significant but inverse relationship with crop yields. Other climatic elements in the experiment provided minimal levels of explanation. The farm surveys found that rural farmers in north-western Nigeria were quite innovative when it comes to adapting to drought. The study concluded that the impact of climatic variations on crop yields in north-western Nigeria can be substantial especially under drought conditions. The need to update farmers' adaptive strategies is emphasized. Keywords: Northern Nigeria, Climate change, Drought, Crop-climate models, Farm surveys, Adaptation strategies 1. Introduction Farming in northern Nigeria is predominantly rural, with over 80 percent of the farmers practicing rain-fed, subsistence agriculture. These peasant farmers produce for subsistence rather than for sale. Thus the aim of food crop production is not to maximize profit but to feed one's family. In the process of meeting family nutritional needs, surplus agricultural products are however disposed in the local markets for money. Climate plays an important role in the agricultural productivity of many parts of northern Nigeria and, with very low level of technology and rigid adherence to traditional ways of farming, recent variations in the weather and climate of the region have taken severe toll on crop production. Indeed, crop production in many parts of northern Nigeria is frequently seen as a matter of lottery since rainfall varies substantially both in time and space, and the variability largely determines the yields and productivity of crops in the area. Since the early 1970's, drought has affected many parts of northern Nigeria with agricultural outputs varying widely from year to year and from one location to the other. The constraints posed by climate change on agriculture in this region range from pronounced seasonality of rainfall (which confines cultivation to short periods of three to five months) to severe and recurrent droughts (which disrupt the usual pattern of seasonal water availability). Most of the droughts also exhibit such characteristics as false onset of the rains, late onset of the rains, pronounced breaks during the rainy season, and early cessation of the rains; leading to drastic alterations in the pattern of seasonal rainfall distribution (Adefolalu, 1986;Anyadike, 1993;Aondover et al., 1998; Ekpoh, 1999a;Dai et al., 2004; Anyanwole, 2007). These are very important climatic limitations placed on crop production in the region because it makes the correct timing of farm operations (which i...

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