Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in Rural West Africa

Yaro, Joseph Awetori; Hesselberg, Jan

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-31499-0

“…The Sahara desert in northern Africa receives very low mean annual precipitation and likewise shows little seasonal change in precipitation (Liebmann et al 2012). The overall reduction in seasonal and annual precipitation over different parts of the African continent during the twentieth century is also noted by several other studies (Sylla et al 2016(Sylla et al , 2018Klutse et al 2018) (Hoerling et al 2006;Lebel and Ali 2009;Lyon and Dewitt 2012;Mohamed 2011;New et al 2006).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 52%

Projected Change in Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6

Almazroui

¹

,

Saeed

²

,

Saeed

³

et al. 2020

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We analyze data of 27 global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the African continent during the twenty-first century. The temperature and precipitation changes are computed for two future time slices, 2030–2059 (near term) and 2070–2099 (long term), relative to the present climate (1981–2010), for the entire African continent and its eight subregions. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projected a continuous and significant increase in the mean annual temperature over all of Africa and its eight subregions during the twenty-first century. The mean annual temperature over Africa for the near (long)-term period is projected to increase by 1.2 °C (1.4 °C), 1.5 °C (2.3 °C), and 1.8 °C (4.4 °C) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for weak, moderate, and strong forcing, referenced as SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The future warming is not uniform over Africa and varies regionally. By the end of the twenty-first century, the largest rise in mean annual temperature (5.6 °C) is projected over the Sahara, while the smallest rise (3.5 °C) is over Central East Africa, under the strong forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected boreal winter and summer temperature patterns for the twenty-first century show spatial distributions similar to the annual patterns. Uncertainty associated with projected temperature over Africa and its eight subregions increases with time and reaches a maximum by the end of the twenty-first century. On the other hand, the precipitation projections over Africa during the twenty-first century show large spatial variability and seasonal dependency. The northern and southern parts of Africa show a reduction in precipitation, while the central parts of Africa show an increase, in future climates under the three reference scenarios. For the near (long)-term periods, the area-averaged precipitation over Africa is projected to increase by 6.2 (4.8)%, 6.8 (8.5)%, and 9.5 (15.2)% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The median warming simulated by the CMIP6 model ensemble remains higher than the CMIP5 ensemble over most of Africa, reaching as high as 2.5 °C over some regions, while precipitation shows a mixed spatial pattern.

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“…In Eastern Africa, climate variability has been reported as erratic weather forms that will result in more risky weather parameters such as droughts, heat waves, floods and forceful storms in the decades to come (Oxfam 2008). Sylla et al (2016) have also projected incessant and tougher warming of between 1.5 and 6.5 °C and a broader range of uncertainty in precipitation over West Africa. These imply vegetable farmers have to adapt to ensure sustainability of their livelihoods.…”

Section: Impact Of Climate Variation and Change On Vegetable Farmersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived livelihood impacts and adaptation of vegetable farmers to climate variability and change in selected sites from Ghana, Uganda and Nigeria

Fadairo

¹

,

Williams²,

Nalwanga

³

2019

Environ Dev Sustain

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In the wake of deepened situations of changing climate, a clear understanding of the perceived impacts and adaptation of climate variability and change on livelihoods of vegetable farmers in Western and Eastern Africa, which is not readily available, is critical for sustainable vegetable production in Africa. Development planning for climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment was utilised in the study. Using multi-stage sampling procedure, 193 vegetable farmers in selected sites prominent for vegetable production from Uganda, Ghana and Nigeria were used. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, analysis of variance and linear regression at α0.05. Awareness of climate variability and change was high among most respondents from the three countries, but highest among respondents from Uganda (78.3%). Awareness was highest for long dry spell ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯ = 1.90) and drought ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯ = 1.81) and lowest for harmful gas emissions ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯ = 0.76). Changes in climate variability and trends were perceived to be highest in terms of flood volume/damage caused by flood to farmlands in Nigeria ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯ = 3.85) and Uganda ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯ = 5.0), but in terms of increased temperature for Ghana ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯ = 4.93). Impact of climate-related changes on vegetable farming was high in Ghana (98.3%) and Nigeria (46.6%) but low in Uganda (5.0%). Awareness (β = 0.14), perception (β = 0.15) use of adaptation strategies (β = 0.10) and household size (β = − 0.19) predicted change in perceived impact of climate variability among vegetable farmers. Vegetable farmers in Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda are affected differently by climate variability. Farmers in these countries also have different priorities for adaptation strategies. Locality-specific climate adaptation strategies would help ease farmers burden due to climate change.

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“…Lebel & Ali 2009, Sanogo et al 2015 and poor model representation of the West African Monsoon system (e.g. Yaro & Hesselberg 2016). Beck & Grieser (2007) used a global data set of gridded precipitation observations to compare changes in rainfall between the subintervals 1951− 1975 and 1976− 2000, and found significant negative trends in precipitation and significant increases in drought severity in sub-Saharan regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

West African Sahel has become wetter during the last 30 years, but dry spells are shorter and more frequent

Bichet¹,

Diedhiou²

2018

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Over the twentieth century, Sahel rainfall has undergone extreme variations on a decadal timescale. This study investigated the recent precipitation changes in West African Sahel using a high-resolution Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) product over the period 1981−2014. We found that the recent increase in precipitation results principally from an increase in the number of wet days (+10 d compared to the normal) over the entire West African Sahel band, along with an increase in the precipitation intensity over the central part of the West African Sahel (+ 3 mm d −1). However, this overall increase in precipitation is associated with dry spells that are becoming more frequent but on average shorter over the entire West African Sahel band (on average by 30%), and with precipitation intensity that is decreasing (around 3 mm d −1 during the study period) in the western part of the West African Sahel (Senegal). Such reorganization (i.e. weaker but more frequent precipitation) is expected to be beneficial for agriculture and society, reducing the likelihood of both flooding and droughts.

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Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in Rural West Africa

Cited by 73 publications

References 0 publications

Projected Change in Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6

Projected Change in Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6

Perceived livelihood impacts and adaptation of vegetable farmers to climate variability and change in selected sites from Ghana, Uganda and Nigeria

West African Sahel has become wetter during the last 30 years, but dry spells are shorter and more frequent

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