Adaptation of Forest Management Regimes in Southern Sweden to Increased Risks Associated with Climate Change

Abstract

Abstract:Even though the growth rates of most tree species in Sweden is expected to increase in the near future as a result of climate change, increased risks of damage by storms and various pests and pathogens, notably root rot and bark beetles, may also occur. Thus, forest management practices such as changes to thinning regimes, reductions in rotation lengths, and switching to other species (native or exotic) may represent adaptive management strategies to increase the resistance and resilience of Swedish forests to climate change. Clearly, thorough analyses examining the effects of anticipated climatic changes on damage levels, and the potentially relieving effects of possible management adaptations are needed before implementing such changes. In this study, damage caused by storms, root rot and bark beetles (single and in various combinations) under selected climate and management scenarios were simulated in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands. The results indicate that reductions in thinning intensity and rotation lengths could improve both volume production and profitability in southern Sweden. In addition, cultivation of rapidly growing species, such as hybrid larch (Larixˆmarschlinsii Coaz.) and hybrid aspen (Populus tremula L.P. tremuloides Michx.), could be as profitable as Norway spruce cultivation, or even more profitable. However, slow-growing species, such as Silver birch (Betula pendula Roth), Downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) indicated low economic output in terms of Land Expectation Value.

Temporal and Spatial Change in Diameter Growth of Boreal Scots Pine, Norway Spruce, and Birch under Recent-Generation (CMIP5) Global Climate Model Projections for the 21st Century

“…This was not evident based on earlier impact studies employing climate data of the CMIP3 database. Climate change likely also increases abiotic and biotic damages (e.g., [57][58][59][60][61]), which may partially counteract the positive effects of climate change on forest growth and timber supply (e.g., [62,63]). However, we did not consider them in our study.…”

Integrated and systemic management of storm damage by the forest-based sector and public authorities

“…3). Adaptation and mitigation strategies are well described, especially in regard to forest management (Heinonen et al 2009;Schelhaas et al 2010;Lagergren et al 2012;O'Hara and Ramage 2013;Subramanian et al 2015). However, the sum of individual strategies does not guarantee the effectiveness of the global strategy, and systemic mitigation measures should be taken as complementary to them.…”

Effects of using certain tree species in forest regeneration on regional wind damage risks in Finnish boreal forests under different CMIP5 projections

“…The higher share of Norway spruce might result in increased wind damage to forests (Schmidt et al 2010;Reyer et al 2017). It might cause also a greater risk of biotic damage (e.g., by wood decay and bark beetles; Subramanian et al 2016;Thom and Seidl 2016;Honkaniemi et al 2017), which were not considered in this study. Increasing abiotic and biotic damage risks to forests should be considered in adapting forest management strategies to properly accommodate/counteract projected climate change Seidl et al 2011;Hanewinkel et al 2013;Subramanian et al 2016;Reyer et al 2017).…”

“…It might cause also a greater risk of biotic damage (e.g., by wood decay and bark beetles; Subramanian et al 2016;Thom and Seidl 2016;Honkaniemi et al 2017), which were not considered in this study. Increasing abiotic and biotic damage risks to forests should be considered in adapting forest management strategies to properly accommodate/counteract projected climate change Seidl et al 2011;Hanewinkel et al 2013;Subramanian et al 2016;Reyer et al 2017). For example, growing forests with more climate change adapted tree species (genotypes), and their mixtures, could help to reduce the possible negative effects of climate change on forests (Neuner et al 2015;Metz et al 2016;Anyomi et al 2017;Jactel et al 2017).…”