Adaptation Needs and Options

Noble, Ian; Huq, Saleemul; Anokhin, Yuri A.; Carmin, Jo Ann; Goudou, Dieudonne; Lansigan, Felino P.; Osman-Elasha, Balgis; Villamizar, Alicia; Patt, Anthony; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi; Chu, Eric

doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415379.019

Cited by 23 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 154 publications

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“…Central to this evolution are the conceptualizations of risk and vulnerability, which have recently undergone a consolidation process among the scientific communities (Kienberger et al 2016). While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (AR3; IPCC 2001) and IPCC AR4 (IPCC 2007) described assessment frameworks for climate change vulnerability, the Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SREX; IPCC 2012) and IPCC AR5 (see IPCC 2014; Huq et al 2014) adopted a risk assessment framework for climate change impacts. Other influential and related works include the Crichton's Risk Triangle (Crichton 1999) the Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis Handbook (Daze et al 2009) and the Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe (MOVE) framework (Birkmann et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change Impact Chains: A Review of Applications, Challenges, and Opportunities for Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments

Menk

Terzi

Zebisch

et al. 2022

Weather, Climate, and Society

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Shifting from effect- towards cause-oriented and systemic approaches in sustainable climate change adaptation requires a solid understanding of the climate-related and societal causes behind climate risks. Thus, capturing, systemizing, and prioritizing factors contributing to climate risks are essential for developing cause-oriented climate risk and vulnerability assessments (CRVA). Impact Chains (IC) are conceptual models used to capture hazard, vulnerability and exposure factors that lead to a specific risk. IC modeling includes a participatory stakeholder phase and an operational quantification phase. While ICs are widely implemented to systematically capture risk processes, they still show methodological gaps concerning, e.g., the integration of dynamic feedback or balanced stakeholder involvement. Such gaps usually only become apparent in practical applications, and there is currently no systematic perspective on common challenges and methodological needs. Therefore, we reviewed 47 articles applying IC and similar CRVA methods that consider the cause-effect dynamics governing risk. We provide an overview of common challenges and opportunities as a roadmap for future improvements. We conclude that IC should move from a linear-, to an impact web-like representation of risk to integrate cause-effect dynamics. Qualitative approaches are based on significant stakeholder involvement to capture expert-, place-, and context-specific knowledge. The integration of IC into quantifiable, executable models is still highly underexplored due to a limited understanding of systems, data, evaluation options, and other uncertainties. Ultimately, using IC to capture the underlying, complex processes behind risk supports effective, long-term, and sustainable climate change adaptation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The IC method is a conceptual framework used to capture the most relevant factors contributing to a specific risk. It structures the risk factors based on the IPCC AR5 risk definition, dividing risk into the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability factors (IPCC 2014;Huq et al 2014). As exemplarily shown in Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impact Chains: A Review of Applications, Challenges, and Opportunities for Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments

Menk

Terzi

Zebisch

et al. 2022

Weather, Climate, and Society

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“…Of importance, Biesbroek et al (2009) indicated that adaptive strategies should not only focus on climate scientists' views but must consider other climate-sensitive policy areas together with non-climatic drivers for sustainable development. Adaptation as a concept is broad however, the common thread of adaptation is increasing the ability of communities, individuals, private organizations, and natural systems to withstand the effects of climate change (Noble et al, 2015;Tompkins et al, 2018;Vincent and Cundill, 2022). Climate change adaptation is an evolving phenomenon and very complex.…”

Section: Literature Review the Theoretical Background Of Adaptation ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Socioeconomic determinants of modern climate change adaptation of small-scale vegetable farmers in Bohlabela District, Mpumalanga Province

Maiwashe Tagwi,

Khoza

2024

Front. Clim.

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Climate change significantly impacts small-scale agriculture, with limited adaptation capabilities due to lack of access to advanced science and technology. Traditional methods are ideal, but modern adaptations require significant financial investment, affecting the smallholder under-resourced agricultural sector's economic activities. The study analyzed climate change adaptation drivers among small-scale vegetable farmers, using a representative sample of 244 farmers from four villages through face-to-face interviews and semi-structured questionnaires. Using the Logistic regression model, the results showed resources (extension services), institutional (association membership) and societal influence (farm produce theft, and animal trespassing in the farming plots) to be associated with the use of modern climate change adaptation measures in the study area. The study recommends expanding extension services, strengthening community policing, creating community grazing guidelines, and training farmers on climate change causes, social cohesion, and mitigation strategies to address farm produce theft and animal trespassing. The study contributes new knowledge to the discourse of climate change adaptation by providing empirical evidence pointing out the need to consider critical non-climate factors for farmers when making climate change adaptations interventions in the smallholder farming sector.

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“…Climate Risk Assessment for Ecosystem-based Adaptation (GIZ, 2018) Systematically considers ecosystem-based solutions 3 a The conceptualization of risk follows the definitions given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Prior to the IPCC AR5 (Field, 2014;Huq et al, 2014) assessments focused on vulnerability rather than climate risk. To acknowledge this recent conceptual shift, in this paper we refer to climate risk and vulnerability assessments.…”

Section: Resource Purpose Applications Publicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research advancements for impact chain based climate risk and vulnerability assessments

Petutschnig,

Rome,

Lückerath

et al. 2023

Front. Clim.

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As the climate crisis continues to worsen, there is an increasing demand for scientific evidence from Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (CRVA). We present 12 methodological advancements to the Impact Chain-based CRVA (IC-based CRVA) framework, which combines participatory and data-driven approaches to identify and measure climate risks in complex socio-ecological systems. The advancements improve the framework along five axes, including the existing workflow, stakeholder engagement, uncertainty management, socio-economic scenario modeling, and transboundary climate risk examination. Eleven case studies were conducted and evaluated to produce these advancements. Our paper addresses two key research questions: (a) How can the IC-based CRVA framework be methodologically advanced to produce more accurate and insightful results? and (b) How effectively can the framework be applied in research and policy domains that it was not initially designed for? We propose methodological advancements to capture dynamics between risk factors, to resolve contradictory worldviews, and to maintain consistency between Impact Chains across policy scales. We suggest using scenario-planning techniques and integrating uncertainties via Probability Density Functions and Reverse Geometric Aggregation. Our research examines the applicability of IC-based CRVAs to address transboundary climate risks and integrating macro-economic models to reflect possible future socio-economic exposure. Our findings demonstrate that the modular structure of IC-based CRVA allows for the integration of various methodological advancements, and further advancements are possible to better assess complex climate risks and improve adaptation decision-making.

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Adaptation Needs and Options

Cited by 23 publications

References 154 publications

Climate Change Impact Chains: A Review of Applications, Challenges, and Opportunities for Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments

Climate Change Impact Chains: A Review of Applications, Challenges, and Opportunities for Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments

Socioeconomic determinants of modern climate change adaptation of small-scale vegetable farmers in Bohlabela District, Mpumalanga Province

Research advancements for impact chain based climate risk and vulnerability assessments

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