Acute Chemical Poisoning in an Industrial City: Current Situation, Dynamics and Forecast

Abstract

Introduction: The urgency of the problem of acute chemical poisoning is attributed to the fact that it is the cause of poor health, disability and premature death of the population, as well as a significant medical and socio-economic damage. Objective: To conduct a retrospective and prospective epidemiological study of acute chemical poisoning based on the results of toxicological monitoring in the city of Taganrog for 2008–2022. Materials and methods: We carried out a comprehensive analysis of statistical reporting forms and a personalized database of 2,466 cases of acute chemical poisoning registered in the city of Taganrog, Rostov Region, in 2008–2022. To do this, we used software of our own design and professional software packages IBM SPSS Statistics version 19.0 and Matlab R2021a with a set of tools for synthesizing and analyzing neural networks Neural Network Toolbox. Results: Over the 15-year period under study, trends towards a decrease in the rates of acute chemical poisoning, mortality and lethality had formed, as confirmed by a favorable assessment of the situation based on regional criteria and actual risk indicators. Alcohol surrogates, pharmaceutical drugs, and carbon monoxide remain the priority etiological causes of poisoning. Relatively high rates were observed among children aged 0–6 not attending preschools and schoolchildren aged 7–17, as well as among the unemployed and pensioners, which allowed us to attribute them to risk groups. High accuracy of forecasts generated using artificial neural networks has been confirmed. Conclusion: The results of toxicological monitoring are the basis for assessing the situation and optimizing toxicological care, both necessary for managerial decision-making and elaboration of targeted chemical safety programs.