Active future rule curves for multi-purpose reservoir operation on the impact of climate and land use changes

Kangrang, Anongrit; Prasanchum, Haris; Hormwichian, Rattana

doi:10.1016/j.jher.2019.03.001

Cited by 14 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…erefore, the HR criteria control water release limitedly for saving water in order to alleviate water de cit in the next dry season [15,18]. However, the SOP criteria control release of water in order to meet target demand for all considered duration times according to many previous studies [11,30,32,33]. Hence, the SOP criteria are less suitable than HR criteria for reservoirs with high frequency of drought problems.…”

Section: E E Ciency Of Mpa Rule Curves Considering Hr and Sopmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is, therefore, uncertain whether it is the optimal rule curve if the reservoir system is more complex [26,27]. Later, optimization methods were applied and developed to find rule curves, e.g., using simulation, dynamic programming [28,29], genetic algorithms [30][31][32][33], genetic programming [34], Tabu search [35,36], Harris hawks optimization [37], wind driven optimization [38], firefly algorithm [39], flower pollination algorithm [40,41], grey wolf optimizer [42], and fast orthogonal search (FOS) [43]. Optimization techniques have been developed and applied in a wide variety of applications in solving numerical and engineering problems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Applying of Marine Predators Algorithm Linked with Reservoir Simulation Model considering Sedimentation for Reservoir Operation

Ngamsert

Kangrang

2022

Advances in Civil Engineering

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This paper proposes the Marine Predators algorithm (MPA) linked with the reservoir simulation model and considering sedimentation, in order to improve reservoir rule curves. The release criteria of the hedging rule (HR) and standard operating policy (SOP) were investigated in this study. The results showed that the patterns of the new optimal rule curves from the MPA technique considering sedimentation and using HR were practically useful in this study, as were the patterns of the new optimal rule curves using SOP and those of the existing rule curves. Furthermore, the new optimal rule curves using HR criteria were able to alleviate both water scarcity and excess water situations better than both existing rule curves and optimal rule curves using SOP in terms of minimal average water shortage. The new curves reduced minimal average water shortage by 53% and excess release water deficit by 19%, whereas the frequency of water shortage term was increased by 3%. The results of rule curves efficiency from MPA were higher than GA and FPA techniques in terms of providing solutions. There was a significant difference in the efficiency of water problem alleviation between considering and not considering sedimentation. It can be concluded that the MPA linked with reservoir simulation using HR criteria and considering sedimentation can be used to find optimal rule curve solutions effectively.

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Section: E E Ciency Of Mpa Rule Curves Considering Hr and Sopmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying of Marine Predators Algorithm Linked with Reservoir Simulation Model considering Sedimentation for Reservoir Operation

Ngamsert

Kangrang

2022

Advances in Civil Engineering

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“…In the past, the consideration of improving the reservoir rule curves of Ubolratana Reservoir, and the other reservoirs in Northeastern Thailand was a case study based on climate change forecasting from the AR4 models [18,30]. This research draws on climate forecasting data from the CMIP5 model based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios that use bias correction to be more accurate, including there are various types and different model resolutions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Rule Curves and Streamflow under Climate Change for Multipurpose Reservoir Operation Using Honey-Bee Mating Optimization

Songsaengrit

Kangrang

2022

Sustainability

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Climate change in the watershed above the reservoir has a direct impact on the quantity of streamflow that enters the reservoir and the management of water resources. Developing effective reservoir rule curves helps reduce the risk of future failures of water resource management. The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of climate change on the volume of streamflow entering the Ubolratana Reservoir, Thailand during the years 2020–2049 with climate simulations from the CIMP5 model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. SWAT models were used to forecast future reservoir streamflow quantities. Moreover, suitable reservoir rule curves using the Honey-Bee Mating Optimization (HBMO) were developed and the effectiveness of the new rule curves was assessed. According to the research findings, the average yearly streamflow in the future apparently grew from 32% in the base years (2011–2019) and 65% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was discovered that the average monthly streamflow was higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. Both of the projected situations have a form compatible with the present rule curves in the section of the new reservoir rule curves generated with the HBMO. Furthermore, the newly constructed rule curves may allow the reservoir to keep more water during the rainy season, thereby assuring that there will be adequate water during the following dry season. Additionally, during the dry season, the reservoir was able to release more water that would be able to reduce the water shortage, indicating that it was able to effectively reduce the amount of water shortage and average overflow under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 situations.

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“…Uncertainty estimation results show that the effect of streamflow uncertainty is greater than corresponding values in model parameters. Kangrang et al [7] evaluated reservoir operation policies against future flow patterns using climate change scenarios and land use patterns. The results showed fewer reservoir fluctuations compared to models without forecast terms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of Forecast Accuracy and its Impact on the Efficiency of Data-Driven Forecast-Based Reservoir Operating Rules

Mostaghimzadeh

Ashrafi

Adib

et al. 2021

Water

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Today, variable flow pattern, which uses static rule curves, is considered one of the challenges of reservoir operation. One way to overcome this problem is to develop forecast-based rule curves. However, managers must have an estimate of the influence of forecast accuracy on operation performance due to the intrinsic limitations of forecast models. This study attempts to develop a forecast model and investigate the effects of the corresponding accuracy on the operation performance of two conventional rule curves. To develop a forecast model, two methods according to autocorrelation and wrapper-based feature selection models are introduced to deal with the wavelet components of inflow. Finally, the operation performances of two polynomial and hedging rule curves are investigated using forecasted and actual inflows. The results of applying the model to the Dez reservoir in Iran visualized that a 4% improvement in the correlation coefficient of the coupled forecast model could reduce the relative deficit of the polynomial rule curve by 8.1%. Moreover, with 2% and 10% improvement in the Willmott and Nash—Sutcliffe indices, the same 8.1% reduction in the relative deficit can be expected. Similar results are observed for hedging rules where increasing forecast accuracy decreased the relative deficit by 15.5%. In general, it was concluded that hedging rule curves are more sensitive to forecast accuracy than polynomial rule curves are.

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Active future rule curves for multi-purpose reservoir operation on the impact of climate and land use changes

Cited by 14 publications

References 33 publications

Applying of Marine Predators Algorithm Linked with Reservoir Simulation Model considering Sedimentation for Reservoir Operation

Applying of Marine Predators Algorithm Linked with Reservoir Simulation Model considering Sedimentation for Reservoir Operation

Dynamic Rule Curves and Streamflow under Climate Change for Multipurpose Reservoir Operation Using Honey-Bee Mating Optimization

Investigation of Forecast Accuracy and its Impact on the Efficiency of Data-Driven Forecast-Based Reservoir Operating Rules

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