Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action

Abstract

Abstract. Too often, credible scientific early warning information of increased disaster risk does not result in humanitarian action. With financial resources tilted heavily towards response after a disaster, disaster managers have limited incentive and ability to process complex scientific data, including uncertainties. These incentives are beginning to change, with the advent of several new Forecast-based Financing systems that provide funding based on a forecast of an extreme event. Given the changing landscape, here we demonstrate a method to select and use appropriate forecasts for specific humanitarian disaster prevention actions, even in a data-scarce location. This action-based forecasting methodology takes into account the parameters of each action, such as action lifetime, when verifying a forecast. Forecasts are linked with action based on an understanding of (1) the magnitude of previous flooding events and (2) the willingness to act "in vain" for specific actions. This is applied in the context of the Uganda Red Cross Society Forecast-based Financing pilot project, with forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). Using this method, we define the "danger level" of flooding, and we select the probabilistic forecast triggers that are appropriate for specific actions. Results from this methodology can be applied globally across hazards, and fed into a financing system that ensures that automatic, pre-funded early action will be triggered by forecasts.

Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

“…Nonetheless, we hope the scientific understanding presented in this review (summarized by Figures and ) contribute to two of the four elements of people‐centered EWSs: risk knowledge and the ability to undertake risk assessments, and monitoring and warning services. Coughlan De Perez et al () and Coughlan de Perez et al () discuss methods to facilitate action from forecasts. With respect to this review, teleconnections with a degree of predictability, such as ENSO or the NAO, could be used to facilitate forecast‐based action (as briefly mentioned by Coughlan De Perez et al, ), and those teleconnections which are not currently predictable can nonetheless be used to inform multihazard risk relative to hazards that do have predictable teleconnections.…”

Revealing Hidden Climate Indices from the Occurrence of Hydrologic Extremes

“…For instance, international (re)insurance companies need to secure enough capital to withstand occasional huge losses (European Environment Agency, ). Alternatively, disaster response institutions (civil protection and humanitarian aid) need to deploy their actions over a large spatial extent and are hence calling for early warning systems that may facilitate logistics and trigger early actions (Coughlan de Perez et al, ). Beyond these two specific examples, a recent World Bank report (World Bank, ) emphasizes the importance of understanding the space‐time variability of extremes and its relation with climate.…”

Operational and emerging capabilities for surface water flood forecasting

“…Different decision‐makers have different requirements from a flood forecasting system. The actions they take may require different lead times to activate (Kox, Kempf, Lüder, Hagedorn, & Gerhold, 2018), and they may be willing to act at different levels of probability based on their acceptance of “acting in vain” (Coughlan de Perez et al, 2016) should an event not occur following the forecast. There is not a one‐size‐fits‐all solution (Kox et al, 2018; Priest, Parker, Hurford, Walker, & Evans, 2011; Rothfusz et al, 2018), yet there is a growing need to provide targeted surface water forecasts to support informed decision‐making (DEFRA, 2018; Halcrow, 2011; Ochoa‐Rodríguez et al, 2018; Pitt, 2008; Priest et al, 2011; Rabb et al, 2019; Speight et al, 2018).…”