Achieving Net-Zero Prosperity: How Governments Can Unlock 15 Essential Transformations

Fazekas, Andreas

doi:10.18235/0004364

Cited by 4 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 56 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…One is that any way of splitting a global carbon budget by region will inevitably look like a burden-sharing exercise, inherently contingent on subjective valuations and political considerations. This is even while there is a growing corpus of evidence forming that suggests emission reductions can be beneficial to countries that undertake them -counterbalancing the burden sharing view (Fazekas et al, 2022;World Bank, 2023).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Energy Planning Consistent with Climate Goals? Assessing Future Emissions from Power Plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

Marinkovic,

Vogt-Schilb

2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

At least ten Latin American and Caribbean countries have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality. Has electricity planning in the region evolved towards reaching these goals? We compare power generation capacity in 2023 to announced plans in 2019. We then estimate committed emissions from existing and planned power plants that is emissions that would result from the normal operations of these plants during their typical lifetime and compare them to emissions from power generation in published IPCC scenarios. We find that fossil fuel planned capacity has decreased by 47% since 2019, mainly due to the cancellation of 50% of coal and 40% of gas projects, compared to only 32% of renewable energy projects. But existing plants in the region will emit 6.7 GtCO2 during their lifespan, and if all planned plants are built, they will add 4.9 GtCO2, totaling 11.6 GtCO2, exceeding median carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2C-consistent IPCC pathways (2.3 and 4.3 GtCO2). Natural gas power plants are the largest contributor to existing (62%) and planned (75%) emissions (versus 24% and 23% for coal). We evaluate emissions reduction strategies to achieve carbon budgets. Assuming no new coal plants comes into operation, announced gas and oil projects are canceled at the same rate as in the past four years, all fossil fueled plant lifetimes are reduced by 10 years, and all new natural gas displaces existing coal, committed emissions fall by 59%, almost meeting the 2C budget, but still twice as large as the median 1.5C budget. Our results suggest that while progress is being made, energy planning in the region is not yet consistent with global climate goals as reflected by the IPCC scenario database.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Energy Planning Consistent with Climate Goals? Assessing Future Emissions from Power Plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

Marinkovic,

Vogt-Schilb

2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Domestic market conditions need to provide investor confidence. In some low-and middle-income countries, market design rules and regulations that enable the private sector to invest in clean energy need to be put in place (Fazekas et al 2022). Stable and robust legal and regulatory institutions are important to investors.…”

Section: Create Improved Conditions For International Financial Assis...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)

2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Traditional development patterns around the world, however, including in Latin American and the Caribbean, have been far from optimal. There is increasing evidence that development and decarbonization can be more aligned than conflicting (Fazekas et al, 2022). As just one example, economic growth in the region has led to the fastest increase in car ownership in the world (SLOCAT 2021).…”

Section: Forewordmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are a host of regulatory, fiscal, information, and other barriers that stand in the way of changes that would lead to better development (Fazekas et al, 2022). For example, the widespread subsidies associated with fossil fuels (International Monetary Fund, 2021) entrench the use of fossil fuels in transport and energy production, even when renewables are the more cost-effective alternative.…”

Section: Low-carbon Development Strategies Are Development Enhancingmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The Benefits and Costs of Reaching Net Zero Emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean

Kalra,

Molina-Pérez,

Syme

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Are development and decarbonization conflicting or complementary goals? In this report, we explore how Latin America and the Caribbean can improve socioeconomic and development outcomes while also reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Specifically, we introduce SiSePuede, an open source decarbonization modeling toolkit that evaluates decarbonization actions costs, benefits, and emissions reductions across the economy. We find that maximizing actions could achieve net-zero emissions in the region before 2050 and net $2.7 trillion in benefits compared to more traditional development. Benefits include massive fuel cost savings; avoided costs from reduced air pollution, congestion, and car crashes; and the value of ecosystem services from forests. Although there are many paths to net-zero emissions, three actions are critical: producing electricity with renewables, electrifying transport, and protecting and restoring forests by halting deforestation and shifting food-production patterns. Economy-wide strategies that implement these actions at scale can reduce emissions dramatically and net enormous benefits to the region even amid deep uncertainties, with a median of $1 trillion in net benefits across all scenarios. These benefits are unevenly distributed across sectors and actors, and across time, so realizing them and ensuring a just transition to net zero requires governments to overcome important financing, regulatory, infrastructure, and other barriers. Each country must tailor its own strategy to address development and emissions goals based on local priorities, capabilities, resources, and technical capacity. SiSePuede provides a robust analytical foundation to support these efforts.

show abstract

Achieving Net-Zero Prosperity: How Governments Can Unlock 15 Essential Transformations

Cited by 4 publications

References 56 publications

Is Energy Planning Consistent with Climate Goals? Assessing Future Emissions from Power Plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

Is Energy Planning Consistent with Climate Goals? Assessing Future Emissions from Power Plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)

The Benefits and Costs of Reaching Net Zero Emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About