Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management

Abstract

We contend that traditional approaches to forest conservation and management will be inadequate given the predicted scale of social-economic and biophysical changes in the 21 st century. New approaches, focused on anticipating and guiding ecological responses to change, are urgently needed to ensure the full value of forest ecosystem services for future generations. These approaches acknowledge that change is inevitable and sometimes irreversible, and that maintenance of ecosystem services depends in part on novel ecosystems, i.e., species combinations with no analog in the past. We propose that ecological responses be evaluated at landscape or regional scales using risk-based approaches to incorporate uncertainty into forest management efforts with subsequent goals for management based on Achievable Future Conditions (AFC). AFCs defined at a landscape or regional scale incorporate advancements in ecosystem management, including adaptive approaches, resilience, and desired future conditions into the context of the Anthropocene. Inherently forward looking, ACFs encompass mitigation and adaptation options to respond to scenarios of projected future biophysical, social-economic, and policy conditions which distribute risk and provide diversity of response to uncertainty. The engagement of science-management-public partnerships is critical to our risk-based approach for defining AFCs. Robust monitoring programs of forest management actions are also crucial to address uncertainty regarding species distributions and ecosystem processes. Development of regional indicators of response will also be essential to evaluate outcomes of management

Forest restoration as a strategy to mitigate climate impacts on wildfire, vegetation, and water in semiarid forests

“…Due to uncertainty, there is interest in management that focuses on maintaining ecosystem function and regional native biodiversity (Stephenson , Golladay et al. ) rather than recreating a historic condition. The provisioning of plentiful, clean water for both environmental flows and human use is an important ecosystem function for many semiarid forests.…”

“…However, the outcomes of restoration under future climate conditions are uncertain and it may be difficult to utilize prescribed fire due to climate change effects on fire season windows. Due to uncertainty, there is interest in management that focuses on maintaining ecosystem function and regional native biodiversity (Stephenson 2014, Golladay et al 2016) rather than recreating a historic condition. The provisioning of plentiful, clean water for both environmental flows and human use is an important ecosystem function for many semiarid forests.…”

Genetic Diversity of the Black Mangrove Avicennia germinans (L.) Stearn in Northwestern Mexico

“…Anthropogenic perturbation in tropical forests, e.g., mangroves, includes land conversion, habitat reduction and fragmentation, pollution, release of invasive species, human-induced fires, and direct exploitation [4,5]. Changes in coastal lagoons in Sinaloa, Mexico have been associated mostly with aquaculture, agriculture, livestock and urban development [6].…”

Developing and Implementing Climate Change Adaptation Options in Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study in Southwestern Oregon, USA

“…Socioeconomic and ecological effects of 424 changing climates will become more evident, but vulnerability assessments and timely 425 implementation of adaptation plans will increasingly be essential to ensuring sustainable 426 management of forests for a range of economic goods and ecosystem services. As has been shown in 427 this case in southwestern Oregon, and in several other locations in the western United States [106], 428 science-management-public partnerships [107] can effectively incorporate evolving science and 429 enable timely progress in adaptation to climate change. Adaptive management in a changing climate is nested and iterative, involving analysis, implementation, and monitoring to conduct initial work and to refine future and ongoing work.…”