Introduction
Prior work proposed a massive transfusion score [MTS] calculated from values obtained in the emergency department to predict likelihood of MT (massive transfusion). We hypothesized the MTS could be utilized at hour 6 to differentiate who continues to require balanced resuscitation in hour 7–24 and to predict death at 28 days.
Methods
We prospectively enrolled patients in whom the MT protocol (MTP) was initiated from 2005 to 2011. Data including timing of blood products were determined at hour 0, 6, 12, and 24. For each patient, transfusion needs were defined based upon either an inappropriately low hemoglobin response to transfusion or a hemoglobin decrease of > 1gm/dL if no transfusion. Timing and cause of death were utilized to account for survivor bias. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to determine independent predictors of outcome.
Results
190 MTP activations were included and by hour 6, 61% required >=10 units of PRBCs. Calculated at initial presentation, a Revised MTS (SBP<90mmHg, BD>=−6, Temp<35.5 C, INR>1.5, Hgb <11g/dL) was superior to the original MTS (including HR>=120bpm, FAST status, mechanism) or the ABC score for predicting MT (AUC MT at 6 hours 0.68, 95% CI 0.57–0.79; at 24 hour 0.72, 0.61–0.83; p<0.05); p<0.05). For those alive at hour 6, the Revised MTS was predictive of future PRBC need (AUC 0.87) in hour 7 to 12, 24-hour mortality (AUC 0.95), and 28-day mortality (AUC 0.77). For each additional positive trigger of the MTS at hour 6, the odds of death at 24 hours and 28 days was substantially increased (24 hours OR 4.6, 95% CI 2.3–9.3; 28 days OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.5–3.2, p<0.0001).
Conclusion
Early end points of resuscitation adopted from the components of the Revised MTS are predictive of on-going transfusion. Failure to normalize these components by hour 6 portends a particularly poor prognosis.