Accounting for Time Preference in Management Decisions: An Application to Invasive Species

Rout, Tracy M.; Walshe, Terry

doi:10.1002/mcda.1490

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…We applied a discount rate of 5%. This rate is consistent with similar studies (Roberts, Pannell, Graeme, & Vigiak, ; Pannell, Roberts, Geoff, & Alexander, ; Rout & Walshe, ) and government recommendations for environmental projects (Wise & Capon, ).…”

Section: Methodological Analysis and Contextsupporting

confidence: 91%

Integrating local knowledge to prioritise invasive species management

et al. 2019

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This is an open access article under the terms of the Creat ive Commo ns Attri bution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract Invasive species management involves complex and multidimensional challenges.There is considerable uncertainty regarding how to identify management strategies that will achieve invasive species control to enhance biodiversity, local economies and human well-being. Invasive species management on inhabited islands is especially challenging, often due to perceived socio-political risks and unexpected technical difficulties.2. Failing to incorporate local knowledge and local perspectives in the early stages of planning can compromise the ability of decision makers to achieve long-lasting conservation outcomes. Hence, engaging the community and accounting for stakeholder perceptions are essential for invasive species management, yet, these processes are often overlooked as they can be perceived as too difficult to implement, too costly and/or too slow for management timeframes.3. To address this gap, we present an application of invasive species management based on structured decision-making, and INFFER-a cost-benefit analysis toolon Minjerribah-North Stradbroke Island (Australia). We assessed the cost-effectiveness of six management scenarios, co-developed with local land managers and community groups, aimed at preserving the environmental and cultural significance of the island by eradicating European red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cats (Felis catus). Information was collected in a survey that elicited local stakeholders' perspectives regarding the significance of the Island, their perception of the benefits of the proposed management scenarios, funding requirements, technical feasibility of implementation and socio-political risk.4. We found that low budgets achieve less cost-effective results than higher budgets. The best strategy focussed on controlling the European red foxes on | 221People and Nature CACERES-ESCOBAR Et Al. | 223People and Nature CACERES-ESCOBAR Et Al.

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Section: Methodological Analysis and Contextsupporting

confidence: 91%

Integrating local knowledge to prioritise invasive species management

et al. 2019

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“…). This is because invasive species management decisions are typically based on populations in specific habitats and locales, involving time horizons of seasons to decades (Rout and Walshe , Wells et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Models of spatiotemporal variation in rabbit abundance reveal management hot spots for an invasive species

Brown

Wells

Roy‐Dufresne

et al. 2020

Ecological Applications

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The European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) is a notorious economic and environmental pest species in its invasive range. To better understand the population and range dynamics of this species, 41 yr of abundance data have been collected from 116 unique sites across a broad range of climatic and environmental conditions in Australia. We analyzed this time series of abundance data to determine whether interannual variation in climatic conditions can be used to map historic, contemporary, and potential future fluctuations in rabbit abundance from regional to continental scales. We constructed a hierarchical Bayesian regression model of relative abundance that corrected for observation error and seasonal biases. The corrected abundances were regressed against environmental and disease variables in order to project high spatiotemporal resolution, continent‐wide rabbit abundances. We show that rabbit abundance in Australia is highly variable in space and time, being driven primarily by internnual variation in temperature and precipitation in concert with the prevalence of a non‐pathogenic virus. Moreover, we show that internnual variation in local spatial abundances can be mapped effectively at a continental scale using highly resolved spatiotemporal predictors, allowing “hot spots” of persistently high rabbit abundance to be identified. Importantly, cross‐validated model performance was fair to excellent within and across distinct climate zones. Long‐term monitoring data for invasive species can be used to map fine‐scale spatiotemporal fluctuations in abundance patterns when accurately accounting for inherent sampling biases. Our analysis provides ecologists and pest managers with a clearer understanding of the determinants of rabbit abundance in Australia, offering an important new approach for predicting spatial abundance patterns of invasive species at the near‐term temporal scales that are directly relevant to resource management.

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“…We assume dc < de (see SI Materials and Methods for discussion and justification) (51,52). The discounting time horizon m and n are the amount of foresight applied to decisions for economic and conservation utilities, respectively (14,53).…”

Section: [4]mentioning

confidence: 99%

Alternative stable states and the sustainability of forests, grasslands, and agriculture

Henderson

Bauch

Anand

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Endangered forest-grassland mosaics interspersed with expanding agriculture and silviculture occur across many parts of the world, including the southern Brazilian highlands. This natural mosaic ecosystem is thought to reflect alternative stable states driven by threshold responses of recruitment to fire and moisture regimes. The role of adaptive human behavior in such systems remains understudied, despite its pervasiveness and the fact that such ecosystems can exhibit complex dynamics. We develop a nonlinear mathematical model of coupled human-environment dynamics in mosaic systems and social processes regarding conservation and economic land valuation. Our objective is to better understand how the coupled dynamics respond to changes in ecological and social conditions. The model is parameterized with southern Brazilian data on mosaic ecology, land-use profits, and questionnaire results concerning landowner preferences and conservation values. We find that the mosaic presently resides at a crucial juncture where relatively small changes in social conditions can generate a wide variety of possible outcomes, including complete loss of mosaics; large-amplitude, long-term oscillations between land states that preclude ecosystem stability; and conservation of the mosaic even to the exclusion of agriculture/silviculture. In general, increasing the time horizon used for conservation decision making is more likely to maintain mosaic stability. In contrast, increasing the inherent conservation value of either forests or grasslands is more likely to induce large oscillations-especially for forests-due to feedback from rarity-based conservation decisions. Given the potential for complex dynamics, empirically grounded nonlinear dynamical models should play a larger role in policy formulation for humanenvironment mosaic ecosystems.

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Accounting for Time Preference in Management Decisions: An Application to Invasive Species

Cited by 6 publications

References 37 publications

Integrating local knowledge to prioritise invasive species management

Integrating local knowledge to prioritise invasive species management

Models of spatiotemporal variation in rabbit abundance reveal management hot spots for an invasive species

Alternative stable states and the sustainability of forests, grasslands, and agriculture

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