Accessing future crop yield and crop water productivity over the Heihe River basin in northwest China under a changing climate

Liu, Qi; Niu, Jun; Sivakumar, Bellie; Ding, Risheng; Li, Sien

doi:10.1186/s40562-020-00172-6

Cited by 20 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 56 publications

(48 reference statements)

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“…In addition to research on the response of crop yields to climate change based on historical observation data, process-based crop models were also used in many studies to predict crop yield changes under different climate change scenarios. 19,20 To separate the composite effects of climate change and agricultural practice, first-order difference multiple regression has empirical advantages. 21 Under the assumption that the technical level progressed evenly, historical data can be used for first-order difference multiple regression to capture the effects of key factors on crops, which also facilitates research on climate-crop yield relationships.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural practice contributed more to changes in soybean yield than climate change from 1981 to 2010 innortheastChina

2021

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BACKGROUND: Although climate change and agricultural practices have non-negligible impacts on crop yields, their quantitative contributions to soybean yields remain unclear. First-order difference multiple regression was used to determine the respective contributions of climate change and agricultural practice to changes in soybean yields at station level from 1981 to 2010 in northeast China.RESULTS: From 1981 to 2010, the soybean yields at 87% of the stations were increasing with an average 41.18 kg ha year −1 change trend in northeast China. The individual impacts of climate change and agricultural practice on soybean yield were −0.33% to 0.58% year −1 and −3.3% to 7.89% year −1 , respectively. The sensitivity of the soybean yield to climatic factors was related to latitude, and yields at high-latitude stations were positively correlated with temperature but negatively correlated with accumulated sunshine hours. Climate change contributed −24% to 38% to the trend in soybean yield, and the temperature had the greatest effect of all the climatic factors.CONCLUSION: The contribution of agricultural practices was greater than that of climate change, counteracting the adverse effects of climate change and even affecting the direction of soybean yield changes. In adaptive decision making, priority should be given to management measures that have less impact on the environment, such as breeding new varieties adapted to specific latitudes, thus promoting the sustainable production of soybeans.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural practice contributed more to changes in soybean yield than climate change from 1981 to 2010 innortheastChina

2021

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“…Sabella et al (2020) indicated that the plant life cycle was clearly shorter under climate change due to the physiological strategy of the plant to escape the high summer temperatures through the early ripening of the kernels. In addition, Liu et al (2021) revealed that the impacts of future climate change on crop yield and CWP of wheat, barley and canola would all be negative.…”

Section: Crop Water Productivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change on water resources and crop yield in the Middle Egypt region

Mostafa

Wahed

El-Nashar

et al. 2021

Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua

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Egypt's water resources are already limited. Moreover, climate change will put greater pressure on these resources. This research aims to assess the impact of climate change on the water demands for one of the most important Egyptian food crops which is the wheat crop. In addition, a number of adaptation strategies were tested to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on wheat productivity and its water relations. The current study was carried out in the Middle Egypt region. Two models were used, the first is the climate model (MAGICC/SCENGEN), which is used to simulate the impact of global greenhouse gas emissions on the rate of rise in temperature at the regional level. The second is the irrigation model (CROPWAT8.0), which is used to simulate the irrigation water requirements under current and likely climate change conditions. The results indicated that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions will cause the temperature to rise over the study area by about 2.12 °C in 2050 and 3.96 °C by 2100. As a result, wheat productivity is likely to drop by 8.6 and 11.1% in 2050 and 2100, respectively. Crop water productivity will also decline by about 11.6% in 2050 and 19.1% in 2100.

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“…Croplands are mainly located in the upstream and middle stream in the Heihe River Basin with an area of about 8.5 × 10 5 ha [27]. The Heihe River Basin is suitable for wheat, corn and Polish canola, with an annual output of 9.9 × 10 5 tons [28]. The total area of forest is about 1.8 × 10 5 ha [28], which is mainly located in the southwest of this region.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Heihe River Basin is suitable for wheat, corn and Polish canola, with an annual output of 9.9 × 10 5 tons [28]. The total area of forest is about 1.8 × 10 5 ha [28], which is mainly located in the southwest of this region. The Heihe River Basin is a typical inland river basin in China, where water-stressed ecosystems are widely distributed, the eco-hydrological processes are complex, and the environment is more sensitive to climate change.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Representativeness of Gross Primary Productivity from Carbon Flux Sites in the Heihe River Basin, China

Zhang

Sun

2021

Remote Sensing

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Studying the spatial representativeness of carbon flux measurement data for typical land cover types can provide important information for benchmarking Earth system models and validating multiple-scale remote sensing products. In our study, daily gross primary productivity (GPP) was firstly derived from eddy covariance observation systems and seasonal variations in field GPP were analyzed at nine flux tower sites for typical land cover types in the Heihe River Basin, China. Then, the real-time footprint distance and climate footprint distance of the field GPP were obtained by using a footprint source area model. Lastly, multiple-scale GPP products were validated at footprint scale, and the impacts (measurement height, surface roughness and turbulent state of the atmosphere) on the footprint distance of field GPP were analyzed. The results of this paper demonstrated that climate footprint distances ranged from about 500 m to 1500 m for different land cover types in the Heihe River Basin. The accuracy was higher when validating MODIS GPP products at footprint scale (R2 = 0.56, RMSE = 3.07 g C m−2 d−1) than at field scale (R2 = 0.51, RMSE = 3.34 g C m−2 d−1), and the same situation occurred in the validation of high-resolution downscaled GPP (R2 = 0.85, RMSE = 1.34 g C m−2 d−1 when validated at footprint scale; R2 = 0.82, RMSE = 1.47 g C m−2 d−1 when validated at field scale). The results of this study provide information about the footprints of field GPP for typical land cover types in arid and semi-arid areas in Northwestern China, and reveal that precision may be higher when validating multiple-scale remote sensing GPP products at the footprint scale than at the field scale.

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Accessing future crop yield and crop water productivity over the Heihe River basin in northwest China under a changing climate

Cited by 20 publications

References 56 publications

Agricultural practice contributed more to changes in soybean yield than climate change from 1981 to 2010 innortheastChina

Agricultural practice contributed more to changes in soybean yield than climate change from 1981 to 2010 innortheastChina

Impact of climate change on water resources and crop yield in the Middle Egypt region

Spatial Representativeness of Gross Primary Productivity from Carbon Flux Sites in the Heihe River Basin, China

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