Accelerating Bus Electrification: A Mixed Methods Analysis of Barriers and Drivers to Scaling Transit Fleet Electrification

Abstract

Although transit buses have a relatively small impact on greenhouse gas emissions, they have a larger impact on urban air quality, have commercially available electric models, and have historically commercialized clean technologies that enabled deployment in other heavy-duty vehicles. This paper investigates what factors affect transit agencies’ decisions to go beyond electric bus pilots to larger scale deployments, with the goal of identifying strategies to enable an accelerated transition to an electrified fleet. This mixed methods analysis utilized quantitative total cost of ownership analysis and qualitative interviews to study the barriers and drivers of electric bus investment for transit fleets in three case study states: California, Kentucky, and Massachusetts. A total cost of ownership analysis estimated electric buses are already more cost-effective than diesel buses in many agency contexts, but are sensitive to key parameters such as annual mileage, fossil fuel costs, and electricity tariffs and supporting policies that vary widely. Though multiple agencies in California reported planning to fully electrify their fleets, outside California where less supportive policies exist, fewer agencies reported planning to procure additional electric buses, primarily owing to high first cost and undesirable tradeoffs with maintaining transit service levels. Interview respondents also reported other substantial barriers such as oversubscribed grant programs, charging infrastructure costs, electricity costs, and additional operational complexity, suggesting a need for multiple complementary policies to overcome these barriers and ensure agencies can transition to a new technology without affecting transit service.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making Process in Metropolitan Transport Means Selection Based on the Sharing Mobility Idea

“…This is the reason why so many different ideas of decreasing the number of individual vehicles in the cities have been developed in the literature [24]. Some of them are incentives to attract passengers to transit: collective taxis [25][26][27], mobility management (MM) [28][29][30][31][32], carpooling [33][34][35][36], car-sharing [37][38][39], or clean transit fleets [40]. The other works present tools for disincentives to the use of private cars, for example, time access restrictions [41,42], optimization of the access control system [43], pedestrian zones [44], permits for central areas only for clean vehicles [45], pricing policies [46,47], goods delivery distribution systems [48], infrastructure investments [49][50][51] and others.…”

Public Transport Decarbonization: An Exploratory Approach to Bus Electrification

“…The decarbonization of the transport sector is urgent in order to meet the goal of reducing GHG emissions in the next few years. With vehicles likely to be replaced just two to three times between now and 2050, meeting climate goals requires urgent action, and that includes the introduction of BEBs in urban public transport [79]. Since the Paris Agreement in 2015 up to 2021, the number of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) set by signatory countries that contain concrete targets for reducing the transport sector's carbon emissions has increased from 8% to 16% [80].…”

Fleet Operator Perspectives on Heavy-duty Vehicle Alternative Fueling Infrastructure

“…Recently, studies have investigated the factors influencing alternative fuel adoption in HDV fleets, addressing fueling infrastructure as a key obstacle (e.g., 9 , 21 – 23 ). For example, Pfoser et al ( 21 ) used a structural equation model based on their survey results in the European Rhine-Main-Danube axis area, finding that the accessibility or availability of technology and refueling infrastructure significantly affected the acceptance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for long-distance HDV transport operators.…”

“…In addition, Anderhofstadt and Spinler ( 22 ) employed the Delphi method to examine the factors affecting the adoption of alternative fuel-powered HDVs in Germany and identified the availability of fueling/charging infrastructure as a primary barrier to purchasing and operating these vehicles. Blynn and Attanucci ( 23 ) reported that the cost of charging infrastructure was a significant obstacle to electrifying transit bus fleets in some U.S. states. Furthermore, Bae et al ( 9 ) found that the lack of infrastructure was frequently cited as a main reason for non-adoption decisions and a primary obstacle for those who proceeded with alternative fuel adoption in HDV fleets in California.…”