Accelerated sea level rise and Florida Current transport

Park, Joseph; Sweet, William

doi:10.5194/os-11-607-2015

Cited by 58 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…High positive correlation within the MAB coast ( Figure 2a) and within the SAB coast ( Figure 2b) show indeed that sea level variations are coherent within each region, but much smaller correlations are found between points north and south of Cape Hatteras. This anticorrelation between coastal sea level and the GS strength (represented by the SSH gradient across its path) was discussed in many studies mentioned before (e.g., Ezer et al, 2013;Park & Sweet, 2015). This anticorrelation between coastal sea level and the GS strength (represented by the SSH gradient across its path) was discussed in many studies mentioned before (e.g., Ezer et al, 2013;Park & Sweet, 2015).…”

Section: Offshore and Onshore Sshmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…The daily FC transport across the Florida Strait (Baringer & Larsen, 2001;Meinen et al, 2010) was obtained from NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory web (www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/floridacurrent/). EMD is a nonparametric, nonlinear signal processing tool that has been used in recent years for numerous studies of sea level variability (Chen et al, 2017;Ezer, 2013Ezer, , 2015Ezer et al, 2013;Ezer & Corlett, 2012;Kenigson & Han, 2014;Park & Sweet, 2015;Wdowinski et al, 2016). The altimeter data provided daily sea surface height (SSH) data on 1/4°grid for 1993-2017 (25 years) over the domain in Figure 1, as well as geostrophic velocity in two regions (white boxes in Figure 1) To separate variations in the data into different time scales, the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD, Huang et al, 1998) analysis method was used.…”

Section: 1029/2019ef001174mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional Differences in Sea Level Rise Between the Mid‐Atlantic Bight and the South Atlantic Bight: Is the Gulf Stream to Blame?

Ezer

2019

Earth's Future

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Recent studies appear to show that a "hot spot" for accelerated sea level rise (SLR) shifted around 2010 from the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) to the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) and south Florida. The role of the Gulf Stream (GS) in this shift was thus investigated. The findings show that in the~15-20 years before, SLR was accelerating in the MAB due to weakening and southward shifting of the GS. After 2010, however, SLR started slowing down in the MAB due to strengthening and northward shifting of the GS. Thermosteric effects seen in altimeter data indicate a warming trend south of 35°N that started around 2010 and contributed to increased SLR south of Cape Hatteras. However, in the MAB, after the GS separated from the coast, the warming of the Subtropical Gyre and cooling of nearshore waters resulted in an opposite SLR response and strengthening of the GS front. Oscillations with periods of 2-5 years dominated the GS flow and coastal sea level variability, but the GS in the MAB is often out of phase with the GS in the SAB due to eddies and recirculation gyres. These oscillations can create temporal changes in SLR rates that are~10 times larger than the long-term trend, so recent changes in the local "hot spot" may not be interpreted as a sign of a shift in the long-term trend, but more likely a temporal shift associated with interannual and decadal variations in the North Atlantic.Plain Language Summary Regional changes in sea level rise (SLR) rates along the U.S. EastCoast and the role of the Gulf Stream (GS) in those changes are investigated, explaining why the largest SLR rates were found north of Cape Hatteras before 2010 and south of Cape Hatteras after 2010. Before 2010 SLR was accelerating in the MAB due to weakening and southward shifting of the GS, but after 2010 SLR started slowing down in the MAB due to strengthening and northward shifting of the GS. Because of the GS dynamics and its distance to shore, a warming trend south of 35°N that started around 2010 had different sea level response in the north and south. Oscillations with periods of 2-5 years were also investigated.

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Section: Offshore and Onshore Sshmentioning

confidence: 75%

Section: 1029/2019ef001174mentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Differences in Sea Level Rise Between the Mid‐Atlantic Bight and the South Atlantic Bight: Is the Gulf Stream to Blame?

Ezer

2019

Earth's Future

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“…Yucatan Channel inflow to the GOM is part of the North Atlantic western boundary current system composed of contributions from the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC; Atlantic limb of the global ocean conveyor belt) (Johns et al 2002). Observations of a decreasing AMOC since 2004 (Robson et al 2014, Smeed et al 2014 lead to expectations of a decreasing western boundary current system (Liu et al 2012, Park andSweet 2015), including Yucatan Channel inflow.…”

Section: A B Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Loop Current Spin-off Eddies, Slope Currents and Dispersal of Reef Fish Larvae from The Flower Gardens National Marine Sanctuary and The Florida Middle Grounds

Johnson¹,

Perry²,

Sanchez-Rubio³

et al. 2017

GCR

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Large energetic spin-off eddies from Loop Current intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico play a major role in water exchange between the continental shelf and the deep basin in the northern Gulf. Reef fish larvae, spawned on the outer shelf and planktonic during their early life history, are broadly dispersed by this mechanism, but may be lost to the cohort by transport away from suitable settlement habitat. In this study, satellite altimeter data-assimilative ocean model currents (HYCOM) from 2003-2015 are used to calculate kinetic energy of the mixed layer over the upper continental slope (200 m -1000 m) due to eddy interactions with the shelf and to track the dispersal of larvae spawned during core summer (June-August) season. Over the 13 year model period, dispersal into the deep basin from the Flower Gardens National Marine Sanctuary averaged 63.5%, with a high of 90.8% and a low of 34.6%. Dispersal from the Florida Middle Grounds averaged 9.5%, with a high of 23.1% and a low of 0.6%. Temporal dispersal of larvae was associated with trends in turbulent kinetic energy and mean kinetic energy over the continental slope, and varied with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index. Between 2010 and 2011, mean kinetic energy replaced turbulent kinetic energy as the dominant dispersal mechanism.

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“…A weakening AMOC is expected to result in a weakening of the Florida Current and a subsequent increase in sea levels. The extent of this change is difficult to forecast, but recent evidence suggests that a 10% decline in transport has contributed 60% of the roughly 7-cm increase in sea level at Vaca Key over the last decade [10]. Continued reduction of the AMOC and Florida Current could be expected to contribute an additional 10-15 cm of sea level rise to South Florida over this century.…”

Section: Appendix C Mean Sea Level In Florida Baymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We chose the Vaca Key station sea level data as representative of South Florida since they best reflect local oceanographic processes that influence coastal sea levels [10].…”

Section: South Florida Sea Level Rise Projectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

South Florida’s Encroachment of the Sea and Environmental Transformation over the 21st Century

Park

Stabenau

Redwine

et al. 2017

JMSE

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South Florida encompasses a dynamic confluence of urban and natural ecosystems strongly connected to ocean and freshwater hydrologic forcings. Low land elevation, flat topography and highly transmissive aquifers place both communities at the nexus of environmental and ecological transformation driven by rising sea level. Based on a local sea level rise projection, we examine regional inundation impacts and employ hydrographic records in Florida Bay and the southern Everglades to assess water level exceedance dynamics and landscape-relevant tipping points. Intrinsic mode functions of water levels across the coastal interface are used to gauge the relative influence and time-varying transformation potential of estuarine and freshwater marshes into a marine-dominated environment with the introduction of a Marsh-to-Ocean transformation index (MOI).

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Accelerated sea level rise and Florida Current transport

Cited by 58 publications

References 32 publications

Regional Differences in Sea Level Rise Between the Mid‐Atlantic Bight and the South Atlantic Bight: Is the Gulf Stream to Blame?

Regional Differences in Sea Level Rise Between the Mid‐Atlantic Bight and the South Atlantic Bight: Is the Gulf Stream to Blame?

Loop Current Spin-off Eddies, Slope Currents and Dispersal of Reef Fish Larvae from The Flower Gardens National Marine Sanctuary and The Florida Middle Grounds

South Florida’s Encroachment of the Sea and Environmental Transformation over the 21st Century

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