Accelerated Recent Warming and Temperature Variability Over the Past Eight Centuries in the Central Asian Altai From Blue Intensity in Tree Rings

Davi, Nicole; Rao, Mukund Palat; Wilson, Rob; Andreu‐Hayles, Laia; Oelkers, Rose; D’Arrigo, R.; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Buckley, Brendan M.; Pederson, Neil; Leland, Caroline; Suran, Byambagerel

doi:10.1029/2021gl092933

Cited by 19 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…However, we note that damage is unlikely under lower emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6; Supplementary Figs. 16,17), and projected damage to Larix sibirica's photosynthetic apparatus generally remains less than 60% under the two high emission scenarios SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 (Supplementary Fig. 18).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Upon crossing this tipping point, southern boreal forest dieback is projected to occur over ~50-100 year timescales and result in up to ~52GtC of potential emissions 9,13 . Notably, North Mongolia and the circumpolar boreal forest have already warmed three times faster than global temperature due to Arctic amplification 10,[14][15][16][17][18] (Fig. 1c, d and Supplementary Fig.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin

Rao,

Davi,

Magney

et al. 2023

Commun Earth Environ

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Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. Ecological responses to extreme heat will depend on vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance. Here we report that Larix sibirica, a foundation species across boreal Eurasia, is vulnerable to extreme heat at its southern range margin due to its low thermal tolerance (Tcrit of photosynthesis: ~ 37–48 °C). Projections from CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) suggest that leaf temperatures might exceed the 25th percentile of Larix sibirica’s Tcrit by two to three days per year within the next two to three decades (by 2050) under high emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). This degree of warming will threaten the biome’s continued ability to assimilate and sequester carbon. This work highlights that under high emission trajectories we may approach an abrupt ecological tipping point in southern boreal Eurasian forests substantially sooner than ESM estimates that do not consider plant thermal tolerance traits.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin

Rao,

Davi,

Magney

et al. 2023

Commun Earth Environ

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“…Subsequently, the performance of the resulting model was validated with the withheld 10 years (see ref. 98 for downloadable R code). For example, the first model was developed using a calibration period of 1971-2007 and validated on precipitation between 1961-1970, while the final model was calibrated on precipitation between 1961-1997 and validated on data between 1998 and 2007.…”

Section: Reconstruction Development and Statistical Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The code used to build the δ 18 O-based precipitation reconstruction was generated by ref. 98, is publicly available and can be found here. https:// agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.…”

Section: Code Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

A 300-year tree-ring δ18O-based precipitation reconstruction for the South American Altiplano highlights decadal hydroclimate teleconnections

Rodriguez-Caton,

Morales,

Rao

et al. 2024

Commun Earth Environ

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Tropical South American climate is influenced by the South American Summer Monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. However, assessing natural hydroclimate variability in the region is hindered by the scarcity of long-term instrumental records. Here we present a tree-ring δ18O-based precipitation reconstruction for the South American Altiplano for 1700–2013 C.E., derived from Polylepis tarapacana tree rings. This record explains 56% of December–March instrumental precipitation variability in the Altiplano. The tree-ring δ18O chronology shows interannual (2–5 years) and decadal (~11 years) oscillations that are remarkably consistent with periodicities observed in Altiplano precipitation, central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, southern-tropical Andean ice core δ18O and tropical Pacific coral δ18O archives. These results demonstrate the value of annual-resolution tree-ring δ18O records to capture hydroclimate teleconnections and generate robust tropical climate reconstructions. This work contributes to a better understanding of global oxygen-isotope patterns, as well as atmospheric and oceanic processes across the tropics.

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“…and Tsuga spp. in North America and Europe (Wilson et al 2014(Wilson et al , 2017a(Wilson et al , 2019Babst et al 2016;Dolgova 2016;Buras et al 2018;Nagavciuc et al 2019;Heeter et al 2019Heeter et al , 2020Tsvetanov et al 2020;Wang et al 2020;Reid and Wilson 2020;Seftigen et al 2022), and on various conifers species in Asia and Oceania (Buckley et al 2018;Cao et al 2020;Blake et al 2020;Davi et al 2021;Wilson et al 2021;O'Connor et al 2022). However, tests involving other tree species are required (Reid and Wilson 2020), especially in the European Alps, which is one of the core areas for dendroclimatic reconstructions in the Old World.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Blue intensity of Swiss stone pine as a high-frequency temperature proxy in the Alps

et al. 2023

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Tree rings are widely used for climatic reconstructions and for improving our understanding of ongoing climate change in high-altitude sensitive areas. X-ray maximum latewood density is a very powerful parameter to reconstruct past climatic variations, especially if compared to tree-ring width, but this method is neither inexpensive nor timesaving. However, blue intensity (BI) has resulted in an excellent maximum wood density surrogate that measures the intensity of reflected light from latewood in the blue spectra. This methodology is still considered a prototype parameter, and more data are needed for validation of the method. We present the first BI values coming from Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) collected on the southern margin of the Alps. Analyses were performed by testing different solvents and polishing techniques, as well as different CooRecorder pixel percentage settings. The results demonstrate that solvents and software parameters have little influence on the final chronologies. Dendroclimatic analyses demonstrate that Swiss stone pine BI can be a useful tool to extract at least the high-frequency variations in July–August temperatures with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.6 (over the 1800–2017 time period). The immunity of Swiss stone pine to insect defoliator outbreaks further enhances the reliability of the BI values of this species in reconstructing past high-frequency temperature variations in high-altitude sensitive areas.

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Accelerated Recent Warming and Temperature Variability Over the Past Eight Centuries in the Central Asian Altai From Blue Intensity in Tree Rings

Cited by 19 publications

References 82 publications

Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin

Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin

A 300-year tree-ring δ18O-based precipitation reconstruction for the South American Altiplano highlights decadal hydroclimate teleconnections

Blue intensity of Swiss stone pine as a high-frequency temperature proxy in the Alps

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