Academic publication uncertainty and research behavior

Abstract

There are many uncertainties in the production/dissemination of academic research. This paper incorporates publication uncertainty in a game model between researchers and journal editors, and examines its effects on the quantity and quality of research and on citations. Authors seek to maximize satisfaction from their publishing efforts, while journal editors try to enhance reputations of their journals. Publication probability depends on the number of academic journals. Results show that the impacts of a change in the number of journals (capturing publication uncertanty) on citations and quality are symmetric. Citations and research quality can go up, while total publications (research quantity) can increase, decrease, or stay unchanged.