Absolutist Words From Search Volume Data Predict State-Level Suicide Rates in the United States

Abstract

Suicide continues to be a major public health issue, especially in the United States. It is a well-established fact that depression and suicidal ideation are risk factors for suicide. Drawing on recent research that shows that absolutist words (e.g., “completely,” “totally”) constitute linguistic markers of suicidal ideation, we created an online index of absolutist thinking (ATI) using search query data (i.e., Google Trends time series). Mixed-model analyses of age-adjusted suicide rates in the United States from 2004 to 2017 revealed that ATI is linked with suicides, β = 0.22, 95% CI = [0.12, 0.31], p < .001, and predicts suicides within 1 year, β = 0.16, 95% CI = [0.05, 0.28], p = .006, independently of state characteristics and historical trends. It is the first time that a collective measure of absolutist thinking is used to predict real-world suicide outcomes. Therefore, the present study paves the way for novel research avenues in clinical psychological research.

COVID-19 concerns in cyberspace predict human reduced dispersal in the real world: Meta-regression analysis of time series relationships across American states and 115 countries/territories

“…For example, as the Baidu Index tracks Chinese people's online search behaviors ( Liu et al, 2019 ), Baidu search volume data could be utilized in future studies. Because online query data were widely used across different disciplines to predict important research topics ( Adam-Troian & Arciszewski, 2020 ; Brodeur et al, 2021 ; Flanagan et al, 2021 ; Husnayain et al, 2020 ; Ma, 2021 , pp. 1–20; Ma & Ye, 2021 ; Markey & Markey, 2011 ; Mavragani & Gkillas, 2020 ; Pelham et al, 2018 ), it is expected that online query data on COVID-19 could be used to explain other COVID-19 related issues.…”

“… Pelham et al, 2018 ), mental health (e.g. Adam-Troian & Arciszewski, 2020 ), physical health (e.g. Flanagan et al, 2021 ), religiosity (e.g.…”

Using Absolutist Word Frequency from Online Searches to Measure Population Mental Health Dynamics

“…Overall, we believe that the ATI could be used as a potent multipurpose cost-effective monitor of population mental health. As discussed in earlier studies 22 , such a tool could be used to assess not only pandemic mental health consequences, but also the effect of public mental health policies, like suicide prevention campaigns. Retrospective analysis on local policies or targeted geographical areas may help discover community resilience factors of interest.…”

“…To compute the ATI, we used search volume data from Google Trends. In short, Google Trends provides researchers with the weekly frequency at which a speci c search term is typed, compared to all different search terms across speci ed languages and geographical areas 22 . These data are publicly available and can be easily retrieved.…”

“…Recent investigations have leveraged this marker using search engine data (e.g. Google Trends 22 ) to show how an index of absolutist word frequency in online searches (Absolute Thinking Index, ATI) can predict state-level suicide rates in the US 23 .…”