Absolute Recidivism Rates Predicted By Static-99R and Static-2002R Sex Offender Risk Assessment Tools Vary Across Samples

Abstract

There has been considerable research on relative predictive accuracy (i.e., discrimination) in offender risk assessment (e.g., Are high-risk offenders more likely to reoffend than low-risk offenders?), but virtually no research on the accuracy or stability of absolute recidivism estimates (i.e., calibration). The current study aimed to fill this gap by examining absolute and relative risk estimates for certain Static sex offender assessment tools. Logistic regression coefficients for Static-99R and Static-2002R were combined through meta-analysis (8,106 sex offenders; 23 samples). The sexual recidivism rates for typical sex offenders are lower than the public generally believes. Static-99R and Static-2002R both demonstrated remarkably consistent relative predictive accuracy across studies. For both scales, however, the predicted recidivism rates within each Helmus et al. / ABSOLUTE RECIDIVISM RATES 1149 risk score demonstrated large and significant variability across studies. The authors discuss how the variability in recidivism rates complicates the estimation of recidivism probability in applied assessments.

A Meta-Analysis of Viewing Time Measures of Sexual Interest in Children

“…Despite the fact that research shows lower recidivism rates over the last few years (Helmus, Hanson, Thornton, Babchishin, & Harris, 2012), VT measures of sexual interest in children have been prospectively linked to sexual reoffending recently (Gray et al, 2015), further justifying their usefulness for forensic assessments. Of note, associations with risk levels can only be regarded as an indirect proof of construct validity for sexual interest in children as recidivism risk is only partially driven by pedophilic sexual interest (e.g., Brouillete-Alarie, Babchishin, Hanson, & Helmus, 2016;Mann et al, 2010).…”

Antibacterial Applications of Anatase TiO<SUB>2</SUB> Nanoparticle

“…At this phase, the nutrients were released into environment from dead cells which allowed the survivors bacteria to use these constituents for their survival and entering in long-term stationary phase [28]. The bacterial cells from long-term stationary phase are capable of maintaining their constant cell density and stay viable for years in a batch culture without supplements [29]. The cells inoculated from this phase were revealed an extended lag phase in growth compared to their growth from late stationary phase [28].…”

Empirische Sozialforschung und ihre Macher

“…Eine Literatur, die bestimmt ist von ihrer Diversität (die von Forschern und Forscherinnen hervorgebracht wird, die aus verschiedenen Disziplinen und verschiedenen Zirkeln kommen, in verschiedenen Kontexten arbeiten und fast nie zweimal die gleiche Methodik anwenden, was den Vergleich schwierig macht) und ihren Regelmäßigkeiten: Publikationsorte (referierte Zeitschrif-ten), starke Mathematisierung der Untersuchung, eine gewisse Undurchschaubarkeit der Herangehensweise (im Gegensatz zu einfachen Vergleichen von Kriminalitätsraten). Diese Akkumulation diversifizierter, undurchschaubarer und widersprüchlicher Literatur finden wir auch auf anderen Forschungsfeldern: Die Evaluierung des Rückfälligkeitsrisikos, insbesondere von Sexualstraftätern (wo jüngst der Versuch unternommen worden ist, zu nüchterneren Zahlen zurückzukehren, siehe Helmus et al 2012 Damit ergibt sich die Notwendigkeit, bewährte quantitative Methoden einzusetzen, um die Erklärungskraft dieser zweiten Perspektive zu quantifizieren und so auf der gleichen Basis aufzubauen wie positivistische Erklä-rungen und um auf diesem Wege zu überprüfen, ob der Autor oder die Autorin nicht ebenso wie die "Wirklichkeit" ein Faktor ist, der zum Verständnis der Disparitäten in den Forschungsergebnissen beiträgt. …”