Abrupt termination of the 2012 Pacific warming and its implication on ENSO prediction

Su, Jingzhi; Xiang, Baoqiang; Wang, Bin; Li, Tim

doi:10.1002/2014gl062380

Cited by 40 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 29 publications

(34 reference statements)

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“…Note that the u is mainly determined by u g , whereas the contribution of u e is much weaker. This is consistent with previous studies (e.g., Su et al, 2010Su et al, , 2014Chen et al, 2015b). Based on Eq.…”

Section: Distinctive Ssta Tendencies During the Onset Phase Of Super supporting

confidence: 93%

Distinctive precursory air–sea signals between regular and super El Niños

Chen

Behera

et al. 2016

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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Statistically different precursory air-sea signals between a super and a regular El Niño group are investigated, using observed SST and rainfall data, and oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data. The El Niño events during 1958-2008 are first separated into two groups: a super El Niño group (S-group) and a regular El Niño group (R-group). Composite analysis shows that a significantly larger SST anomaly (SSTA) tendency appears in S-group than in R-group during the onset phase [April-May (0)], when the positive SSTA is very small. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis indicates that the tendency difference arises primarily from the difference in zonal advective feedback and the associated zonal current anomaly (u ). This is attributed to the difference in the thermocline depth anomaly (D ) over the off-equatorial western Pacific prior to the onset phase, as revealed by three ocean assimilation products. Such a difference in D is caused by the difference in the wind stress curl anomaly in situ, which is mainly regulated by the anomalous SST and precipitation over the Maritime Continent and equatorial Pacific.

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Section: Distinctive Ssta Tendencies During the Onset Phase Of Super supporting

confidence: 93%

Distinctive precursory air–sea signals between regular and super El Niños

Chen

Behera

et al. 2016

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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“…However, in 2014, there were stronger early indications of an upcoming El Niño event favored by a combination of strong WWBs and a recharged ocean state reminiscent of the early 1997, whereas the midyear easterly burst was significantly more intense than that discussed in ref. 24.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Stochastic atmospheric forcing, including equatorial westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that often occur in the vicinity of the Dateline (21-23) and easterly wind bursts (EWBs) (24,25), contributes to El Niño diversity. Observational and modeling studies suggest that WWBs modulate the strength and timing of El Niño events (18,20,(26)(27)(28)-for instance, the extreme El Niño of 1997 began after several strong WWBs (Fig.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Exceptionally strong easterly wind burst stalling El Niño of 2014

Fedorov

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

157

105

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Intraseasonal wind bursts in the tropical Pacific are believed to affect the evolution and diversity of El Niño events. In particular, the occurrence of two strong westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in early 2014 apparently pushed the ocean-atmosphere system toward a moderate to strong El Niño-potentially an extreme event according to some climate models. However, the event's progression quickly stalled, and the warming remained very weak throughout the year. Here, we find that the occurrence of an unusually strong basin-wide easterly wind burst (EWB) in June was a key factor that impeded the El Niño development. It was shortly after this EWB that all major Niño indices fell rapidly to near-normal values; a modest growth resumed only later in the year. The easterly burst and the weakness of subsequent WWBs resulted in the persistence of two separate warming centers in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, suppressing the positive Bjerknes feedback critical for El Niño. Experiments with a climate model with superimposed wind bursts support these conclusions, pointing to inherent limits in El Niño predictability. Furthermore, we show that the spatial structure of the easterly burst matches that of the observed decadal trend in wind stress in the tropical Pacific, suggesting potential links between intraseasonal wind bursts and decadal climate variations.2014 El Niño | westerly wind bursts | easterly wind bursts | El Niño predictability | decadal climate change

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“…It is interesting that a modulation of the climatological seasonality at the equatorial Pacific in a CGCM resulted in a successful forecast of the Niño3.4 SSTA starting from April 2014 (Masuda et al 2015), implying the importance of the realistic background seasonality on the response to WWEs. In addition to the case in 2014/15, the evolution of the SSTA in 1974/75 is also curious as McPhaden et al (2015) (Su et al 2014;McPhaden et al 2015); subsequent WWEs in March and April 2012 might result in warming. Although the results in Sect.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Importance of background seasonality over the eastern equatorial Pacific in a coupled atmosphere-ocean response to westerly wind events

Hayashi

2016

Clim Dyn

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Abrupt termination of the 2012 Pacific warming and its implication on ENSO prediction

Cited by 40 publications

References 29 publications

Distinctive precursory air–sea signals between regular and super El Niños

Distinctive precursory air–sea signals between regular and super El Niños

Exceptionally strong easterly wind burst stalling El Niño of 2014

Importance of background seasonality over the eastern equatorial Pacific in a coupled atmosphere-ocean response to westerly wind events

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