Abrupt Climate Regime Shifts, Their Potential Forcing and Fisheries Impacts

Xu, Jianjun

doi:10.4236/acs.2011.12004

Cited by 15 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…The other three regime shifts are observed at 1969-1970, 1980-1981, and 1995-1996 using the 85 % confidence level. Overall, the results generally reproduced the five regime shifts from previous studies based on various data sets (Mantua et al, 1997;Minobe, 1999;Overland et al, 2008;Powell and Xu, 2011a). However, it is worth noting that the regime shifts in the Indian Ocean are different from their counterparts in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.…”

Section: Regime Shifts From the Global Fao Fish Landingsupporting

confidence: 81%

“…2. It is worth noticing that the 1998-1999 regime shift does not clearly pass the significant t test at the 90 % confidence level, but the shift is consistent with previous studies (Overland et al, 2008;Powell and Xu, 2011a). Since atmospheric forcing of the ocean is thought to be a critical factor, the atmospheric regime shifts are matched with the effects of the ocean surface stress and marine changes via fish landings in the research analysis.…”

Section: Identification Of the Regime Shiftssupporting

confidence: 67%

“…Regime shifts are associated with large, abrupt, persistent changes in both atmospheric and oceanic conditions that may be especially pronounced in physical and biological variables. Generally, regime shifts have been found to have occurred in 1925, 1947, 1977, 1989, and 1998(Mantua et al, 1997Minobe, 1999;Beamish et al, 2004;King, 2005;Overland et al, 2008;Powell and Xu, 2011a). The 1976/77 regime shift is the most commonly identified shift in the literature currently and is often identified with high-amplitude changes in numerous atmospheric, oceanic, and biological measures cited in the literature (Ebbesmeyer et al, 1991;Minobe, 1997Minobe, , 1999Overland et al, 2008;Powell and Xu, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decadal regime shift linkage between global marine fish landings and atmospheric planetary wave forcing

2015

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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Abstract. This investigation focuses on a global forcing mechanism for decadal regime shifts and their subsequent impacts. The proposed global forcing mechanism is that the global atmospheric planetary waves can lead to changes in the global surface air-sea conditions and subsequently fishery changes. In this study, the five decadal regime shifts (1956-1957, 1964-1965, 1977-1978, 1988-1989, and 1998-1999) in the most recent 59-year period have been identified based on Student t tests and their association with global marine ecosystem change has been discussed. Changes in the three major oceanic (Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian) ecosystems will be explored with the goal of demonstrating the linkage between stratospheric planetary waves and the ocean surface forcing that leads to fisheries impacts. The global forcing mechanism is described with a top-down approach to help the multidisciplinary audience follow the analysis. Following previous work, this analysis addresses how changes in the atmospheric planetary waves may influence the vertical wind structure, surface wind stress, and their connection with the global ocean ecosystems based on a coupling of the atmospheric regime shifts with the decadal regime shifts determined from marine life changes. The multiple decadal regime shifts related to changes in marine life are discussed using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) global fish capture data (catch/stock). Analyses are performed to demonstrate that examining the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and fisheries is a plausible approach to explaining decadal climate change in the global marine ecosystems and its impacts. The results show a consistent mechanism, ocean wind stress, responsible for marine shifts in the three major ocean basins. Changes in the planetary wave pattern affect the ocean wind stress patterns. A change in the ocean surface wind pattern from longwave (relatively smooth and less complex) to shorter-wave (more convoluted and more complex) ocean surface wind stress creates changes in global marine fisheries.

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Section: Regime Shifts From the Global Fao Fish Landingsupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: Identification Of the Regime Shiftssupporting

confidence: 67%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decadal regime shift linkage between global marine fish landings and atmospheric planetary wave forcing

2015

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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“…Furthermore, when the wind stress anomaly shows the "Cyclonic-Southerly" pattern, a cold SST anomaly emerged over the central North Pacific and a warm SST anomaly formed along the WCC (Figures 2(g)), which is similar to the "Westerly-Divergence" pattern (Figures 2(j) and (k)); In the opposing situation, when the wind stress anomaly shows the "Anticyclonic-Northerly" pattern, a warm SST anomaly appeared over the central North Pacific and a cold SST anomaly formed off the Table 1 (Updated from Powell and Xu [9], Figures 6 and 7). WCC (Figure 2(i)), which is similar to the "EasterlyConvergence" pattern (Figures 2(h) and (i)).…”

Section: Oceanmentioning

confidence: 67%

“…To track the variability of species from California's borders, this data set includes only the landings recorded as caught off the west coast of California (WCC). The thirty one species tracked plus the total (All) are listed in Table 1 from Powell and Xu [9].…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Two mechanisms responsible for marine ecosystem regime shifts from fish landings data off the West Coast of California (WCC)

Xu¹

2013

Self Cite

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This investigation focuses on two mechanisms over the North Pacific connecting decadal regime shifts to regional ecosystem impacts. The physical conditions show the impacts of the atmospheric surface wind stress and the sea surface temperature (SST) physical conditions on the fish landings along the west coast of California (WCC) from 1928-2008. The two mechanisms are identified by the two types of wind stress (e.g. westerly-easterly; or cyclonic-anticyclonic) anomaly over the central North Pacific which results in SST anomalies in the WCC. In both mechanism cases, the local warm (cold) SST anomaly leads to the number of fish species rising (falling) in the WCC region. In addition, the wind stress and SST anomaly pattern over the North Pacific is closely related to the intensity of the regime shifts as identified in the fish landings off the WCC.

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Climate Change, Cryosphere, and Atmospheric Chemistry

Brenning

Gel

2012

Encyclopedia of Environmetrics

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In this article, we briefly review three major methodological challenges faced in climate change research, cryospheric science, and atmospheric chemistry, namely, (i) matching and correlation of climatic and (paleo)climatic records, (ii) trend and regime shift analysis, and (iii) spatial downscaling and modeling. We discuss uses and misuses of statistics in climate research and provide general perspectives on open research problems lying at the intersection of modern statistical science and climate studies.

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Abrupt Climate Regime Shifts, Their Potential Forcing and Fisheries Impacts

Cited by 15 publications

References 61 publications

Decadal regime shift linkage between global marine fish landings and atmospheric planetary wave forcing

Decadal regime shift linkage between global marine fish landings and atmospheric planetary wave forcing

Two mechanisms responsible for marine ecosystem regime shifts from fish landings data off the West Coast of California (WCC)

Climate Change, Cryosphere, and Atmospheric Chemistry

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