Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century

Narisma, Gemma; Foley, Jonathan A.; Licker, Rachel; Ramankutty, Navin

doi:10.1029/2006gl028628

Cited by 113 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…S4), changes in dry-season precipitation in northern Africa, southern Europe, and western Australia are expected to be near 20% for 2°C warming, and those of southwestern North America, eastern South America, and southern Africa would be Ϸ10% for 2°C of global mean warming. For comparison, the American ''dust bowl'' was associated with averaged rainfall decreases of Ϸ10% over Ϸ10-20 years, similar to major droughts in Europe and western Australia in the 1940s and 1950s (22,32). The spatial changes in precipitation as shown in Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions

Solomon

Plattner²,

Knutti³

et al. 2009

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

2,448

1,485

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The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450 -600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the ''dust bowl'' era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4 -1.0 m if 21st century CO 2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6 -1.9 m for peak CO 2 concentrations exceeding Ϸ1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.dangerous interference ͉ precipitation ͉ sea level rise ͉ warming

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…S3. The yellow box indicates the range of precipitation change observed during typical major regional droughts such as the ''dust bowl'' in North America (32). (Lower) Corresponding irreversible global warming (black line).…”

Section: Discussion: Some Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions

Solomon

Plattner²,

Knutti³

et al. 2009

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

2,448

1,485

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Even if a physically plausible climate trend is found, the amount of explained variance may be low as in the case of regional rates of sea-level rise (Plag, 2006). There is also no guarantee that a trend will persist, as evidenced by the abrupt changes in rainfall and atmospheric circulation of the last century (Baines and Folland, 2007;Narisma et al, 2007).…”

Section: Trend Extrapolationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning

Wilby¹,

Troni²,

Biot³

et al. 2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

251

155

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ABSTRACT:Although the use of climate scenarios for impact assessment has grown steadily since the 1990s, uptake of such information for adaptation is lagging by nearly a decade in terms of scientific output. Nonetheless, integration of climate risk information in development planning is now a priority for donor agencies because of the need to prepare for climate change impacts across different sectors and countries. This urgency stems from concerns that progress made against Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) could be threatened by anthropogenic climate change beyond 2015. Up to this time the human signal, though detectable and growing, will be a relatively small component of climate variability and change. This implies the need for a twin-track approach: on the one hand, vulnerability assessments of social and economic strategies for coping with present climate extremes and variability, and, on the other hand, development of climate forecast tools and scenarios to evaluate sector-specific, incremental changes in risk over the next few decades. This review starts by describing the climate outlook for the next couple of decades and the implications for adaptation assessments. We then review ways in which climate risk information is already being used in adaptation assessments and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of three groups of techniques. Next we identify knowledge gaps and opportunities for improving the production and uptake of climate risk information for the 2020s. We assert that climate change scenarios can meet some, but not all, of the needs of adaptation planning. Even then, the choice of scenario technique must be matched to the intended application, taking into account local constraints of time, resources, human capacity and supporting infrastructure. We also show that much greater attention should be given to improving and critiquing models used for climate impact assessment, as standard practice. Finally, we highlight the over-arching need for the scientific community to provide more information and guidance on adapting to the risks of climate variability and change over nearer time horizons (i.e. the 2020s). Although the focus of the review is on information provision and uptake in developing regions, it is clear that many developed countries are facing the same challenges.

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“…Ideas and raw materials may be abundant when systems are caught in poverty traps, but there is no capacity to focus resources on a promising idea and move the system forward (Westley et al 2006). An ecological example is persistent drought due to vegetationatmosphere interactions in drylands (Narisma et al 2007). If the vegetation becomes scattered and sparse, albedo increases, and local weather becomes warmer and drier.…”

Section: Poverty Trapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive Capacity and Traps

Carpenter¹,

Brock²

2008

E&S

378

260

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ABSTRACT. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a living system, such as a social-ecological system, to adjust responses to changing internal demands and external drivers. Although adaptive capacity is a frequent topic of study in the resilience literature, there are few formal models. This paper introduces such a model and uses it to explore adaptive capacity by contrast with the opposite condition, or traps. In a socialecological rigidity trap, strong self-reinforcing controls prevent the flexibility needed for adaptation. In the model, too much control erodes adaptive capacity and thereby increases the risk of catastrophic breakdown. In a social-ecological poverty trap, loose connections prevent the mobilization of ideas and resources to solve problems. In the model, too little control impedes the focus needed for adaptation. Fluctuations of internal demand or external shocks generate pulses of adaptive capacity, which may gain traction and pull the system out of the poverty trap. The model suggests some general properties of traps in social-ecological systems. It is general and flexible, so it can be used as a building block in more specific and detailed models of adaptive capacity for a particular region.

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Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century

Cited by 113 publications

References 42 publications

Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions

Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions

A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning

Adaptive Capacity and Traps

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