Abrupt changes in air temperature and precipitation: Do they matter for water chemistry?

Temnerud, Johan; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.

doi:10.1029/2007gb003023

Cited by 31 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…We detected abrupt shifts in average ice breakup dates from 1970 to early 2000s for 53% of study lakes with more rapid warming following the shift year. Although shifts in the 1970s were a few years earlier than expected, abrupt shifts in ice breakup from the 1980s onwards encompassed a period of sudden changes in the climate (Marty ; Temnerud and Weyhenmeyer ; Reid et al ) and phase switches of prominent large‐scale climate oscillations (Hurrell ; Assel et al ; Rodionov and Assel ; Van Cleave et al ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Reaching a breaking point: How is climate change influencing the timing of ice breakup in lakes across the northern hemisphere?

Lopez

Hewitt

Sharma

2019

Limnology & Oceanography

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The duration of seasonal winter ice cover has declined in many mid‐ and high‐latitude regions around the world as climate continues to warm. We obtained data on lake ice breakup dates, air temperature, precipitation, and large‐scale climate oscillations for 152 lakes across the northern hemisphere from 1951 to 2014. Ninety‐seven percent of study lakes exhibited earlier ice breakup trends. Forty‐six percent of the variation in ice breakup trends was driven by spring air temperatures and elevation across the northern hemisphere. However, changes in ice breakup have not always been in a gradual or linear pattern. Using the sequential T‐test analysis of regime shifts, we found evidence of abrupt changes in mean ice breakup for 53% of lakes with shift years identified between 1970 and 2002. Concurrently, we found abrupt changes in mean spring and winter air temperatures, winter precipitation, and large‐scale climate oscillations that occurred either the same year or 1 yr prior. Earlier ice breakup and the shortening of the ice season will have consequences for winter heritage, local economies, and lake ecosystems around the world.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Reaching a breaking point: How is climate change influencing the timing of ice breakup in lakes across the northern hemisphere?

Lopez

Hewitt

Sharma

2019

Limnology & Oceanography

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“…The detection tool was originally developed for time series but can be used for variables other than time as long as x ‐values are equally spaced. Following previous studies where this method was applied to the Swedish water chemical monitoring data material (Temnerud & Weyhenmeyer, 2008), we chose the MPK method and set the significance level to 0.05, the cut‐off length to 8 and the Huber’s weight parameter to 6. We tested also other values for the cut‐off length and the Huber’s weight parameter and received similar results.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifts in phytoplankton species richness and biomass along a latitudinal gradient – consequences for relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning

2012

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Summary 1. Analysing phytoplankton community data from 205 small, mainly oligotrophic Swedish lakes along a 13° latitudinal gradient, we found that the duration of the open‐water season (DT > 0) was best related to phytoplankton species richness and biomass, probably because DT > 0 can be used as a proxy for nutrient concentrations, as well as for light and temperature conditions in lakes. 2. The relationships between DT > 0 and phytoplankton species richness and biomass were not linear but showed significant shifts, that is, richness suddenly doubled at DT > 0 = 170 days and phytoplankton biomass began to strongly increase at DT > 0 around 220 days. 3. The doubling in species richness corresponded to a change in the seasonal plankton succession from one to two peaks per year, and the shift in biomass corresponded to a shift in nutrient concentrations. 4. The geographical differences in richness and biomass shifts resulted in an exponential biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship along a DT > 0 gradient. 5. We conclude that phytoplankton species richness and biomass are driven by different environmental factors, resulting in a nonlinear biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship. The shape of the diversity–functioning relationship varies along with variations in environmental drivers, which is of highest importance for ongoing discussions about impacts of global change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

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“…Besides these threshold-driven changes ecosystem responses over large parts of Europe have been related to regime shifts in the climate associated with changes in the NAO (Hurrell et al, 2001). Prominent abrupt changes in, e.g., ice phenology or the spring plankton phenology basically followed the abrupt changes in the NAO in the late 1980s (Weyhenmeyer et al, 1999;Gerten & Adrian, 2000;Livingstone, 2000;Temnerud & Weyhenmeyer, 2008; see also the 1988 abrupt shift in the spring physical system component in Fig. 3).…”

Section: Hierarchy Of Changementioning

confidence: 97%

Exploring lake ecosystems: hierarchy responses to long‐term change?

Wagner

Adrian

2009

Global Change Biology

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Shifts in climate regime have provoked substantial trophic-and species-dependent changes within ecosystems. With growing concerns of present global warming, we examined potential lake ecosystem responses, natural hierarchy responses (i.e. immediate responses at lower system levels as opposed to delayed responses at higher system levels), and possible shifts among abiotic (physics, nutrients) and biotic (phytoplankton, zooplankton) system components. Specifically, we analyzed decadal data collected from Mü ggelsee, a lake in Berlin, Germany, for climate-induced abiotic and biotic changes, their timing and type, and classified them as abrupt permanent, gradual permanent, abrupt temporary, or monotonic. We further categorized variable changes as a function of system hierarchy, including lake physics (ice, temperature, stratification), nutrients (phosphorus, nitrogen, silicate), plankton, and levels of integration (i.e. species, taxonomic groups, and total plankton). Contrary to current theory, data suggest abrupt responses did not occur in a hierarchy-dependent manner, nor was a clear pattern observed among functional system-based categories. Abrupt permanent changes were the most prominent response pattern observed, suggesting they may be driven by largescale climatic oscillations and by surpassed thresholds, as noted in previous case studies. Gradual changes coincided with affected abiotic parameters spanning an expansive time range; for example, climatic effects in spring preceded changes in nutrient limitation. Variables displaying no long-term changes pointed to compensation processes caused by, e.g., simultaneously acting forces of warming trends and climate-independent changes in trophic state. Nevertheless, the complexity of response patterns at the single system level manifested clear chronological regime shifts in abiotic and biotic parameters in spring and, to a lesser extent, in summer. With regard to projected global warming, the majority of currently unaffected system levels may face impending thermal thresholds, achievement of which would result in an accelerated shift in ecosystem state.

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Abrupt changes in air temperature and precipitation: Do they matter for water chemistry?

Cited by 31 publications

References 62 publications

Reaching a breaking point: How is climate change influencing the timing of ice breakup in lakes across the northern hemisphere?

Reaching a breaking point: How is climate change influencing the timing of ice breakup in lakes across the northern hemisphere?

Shifts in phytoplankton species richness and biomass along a latitudinal gradient – consequences for relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning

Exploring lake ecosystems: hierarchy responses to long‐term change?

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