Abortion policy is still contentious in many parts of the world, and periodically it emerges to dominate health policy debates. This paper examines one such debate in Australia centering on research findings by a New Zealand research group, Fergusson, Horwood & Ridder, published in early 2006. The debate highlighted the difficulty for researchers when their work is released in a heightened political context. We argue that the authors made a logical error in constructing their analysis and interpreting their data, and are therefore not justified in making policy claims for their work. The paper received significant public attention, and may have influenced the public policy position of a major professional body. Deeply held views on all sides of the abortion debate are unlikely to be reconciled, but if policy is to be informed by research, findings must be based on sound science.
The policy questionsThe deeply held beliefs on all sides of the debate about health services for women with unplanned pregnancies make it one of the most volatile and unpredictable of health policy issues. The uneasy political compromise that holds in Australia and New Zealand is one which allows women access to abortion on the basis of the common law or statute, but retains a criminal offense of abortion [1,2]. This arrangement is periodically challenged by those who believe that termination of pregnancy should never be allowed, or allowed only in the narrowest of circumstances.The policy logic of the prohibitionist view is that women and their health care providers should be prevented from having or providing abortions, by means of criminal sanctions, because abortion is morally repugnant. However, strong majorities in Australia [3] and New Zealand take the view that women should have access to safe abortion services. It is clear from the research on public opinion that people differentiate between the moral and public policy questions. The majority view on the public policy question (in support of safe service provision) is held by people who hold varying personal positions on the morality of abortion, as modelled (See Figure 1).The logic of the majority view in support of provision of abortion services is based on two main foundations. The first is that women as persons have the moral capacity (and in democracies the right as citizens) to make decisions about their reproductive lives, including their pregnancies. The second is the 'harm minimisation' position that the health and equity impacts of prohibitionist policies are unacceptable.