A Year Without a Conviction: An Integrated Examination of Potential Mechanisms for Successful Reentry in High-Risk Violent Prisoners

Abstract

Some high-risk prisoners on parole "beat the odds": remaining in the community through their first year without incurring even minor reconvictions. What makes the difference? We investigated three potential mechanisms for post-release survival-lower dynamic risk, greater readiness for parole, and earlier and longer parole oversight-in two samples: 120 men who had completed 8 to 12 months in an intensive treatment unit for high-risk prisoners, and 151 comparison prisoners who had received less or no treatment. Based on structural equation modeling, results indicated that treatment status (completer or comparison), and readiness for release each directly predicted when and for how long a prisoner would be on parole, which in turn predicted reconviction. Significant indirect pathways indicated that lower dynamic risk, better release readiness and longer/earlier parole oversight all contributed to the lower rates of reconviction in highrisk prisoners, whether treated or not.

High-Risk Violent Prisoners’ Patterns of Change on Parole on the DRAOR’s Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors

“…When we added the type of parole release granted to participants to the growth curve models, it was a significant predictor of initial scores, and sample membership (treatment vs. comparison) became non-significant. This pattern suggests that parole status is a better predictor than sample status of DRAOR scores in the community, a result that fits with other research with this sample (e.g., Polaschek, Yesberg, & Chauhan, 2016), and suggests that the parole board is relatively effective in identifying those with better release prospects.…”

Moving Home: Examining the Independent Effects of Individual- and Neighborhood-Level Residential Mobility on Recidivism in High-Risk Parolees

“…The RoC*RoI score is widely used in the New Zealand correctional system for various purposes including sentencing, parole and rehabilitative program provision, because of its strong predictive relationship to a number of recidivism indices. This finding is consistent with prior research on the RoC*RoI with New Zealand parolees (e.g., Polaschek, Yesberg, & Chauhan, 2017) and with an enormous body of international research attesting to the value of criminal history variables in predicting future recidivism (see Bonta, LaPrairie, & Wallace-Capretta, 1997;Mulder, Brand, Bullens, & van Marle, 2012).…”

“…Participants were selected and consented to take part in the study as they were nearing parole eligibility, or sentence expiration; 280 had complete data and were included in these analyses. Criteria for selection into the original study included at least a 65% risk of returning to prison within 5 years for a new offence (measured using the Risk of ReConviction [RoC] *Risk of Imprisonment [RoI], see below), a sentence of imprisonment of at least 2 years, and aged older than 20 years at the time of recruitment (for more detail, see Polaschek, Yesberg, Bell, Casey, & Dickson, 2016;and Polaschek, Yesberg, & Chauhan, 2017). Table 1 shows pertinent sample characteristics, and they are described more fully below.…”

Life on parole: The quality of experiences soon after release contributes to a conviction‐free re‐entry

“… Notes : In all models, two measures completed based on information immediately prior to release—VRS scores, and the quality of the release plan, based on the Release Proposal Feasibility Assessment‐Revised scores (Wilson, 2011; see Polaschek, Yesberg, & Chauhan, 2018 for more information)—and treatment status (HRSTU or comparison) were controlled for. In the model predicting reconviction, RoC*RoI scores were also controlled for.…”