A wind density model to quantify the airborne spread of Culicoides species during north-western Europe bluetongue epidemic, 2006

Hendrickx, Guy; Gilbert, Marius; Staubach, Christoph; Elbers, A.R.W.; Mintiens, Koen; Gerbier, Guillaume; Ducheyne, Els

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.06.009

Cited by 114 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Figure 3 shows that the vast majority of infections appear to have occurred over distances of 5 km or less. This result is in contrast to the conclusions of Hendrickx et al [7], who considered only downwind movements at medium and long distances (i.e. not random, upwind or mixed movements) and assumed that, over short distances, all midge movements are effectively random, on the basis of Gerbier et al [10], who applied standard cluster analysis to a small region of the same outbreak data.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 57%

“…The inland spread of bluetongue virus-serotype 8 (BTV-8) across northwest Europe in 2006 [6] elicited a few studies on the relationship between wind and the epizootic [7] among a large body of literature on its epidemiological characteristics [8,9]. Apart from the wind, other factors may have contributed to the BTV-8 epizootic, such as random midge flight [10] and human transport of the virus, host and/or midges [11 -16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A new algorithm quantifies the roles of wind and midge flight activity in the bluetongue epizootic in northwest Europe

et al. 2012

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The 2006 bluetongue (BT) outbreak in northwestern Europe had devastating effects on cattle and sheep in that intensively farmed area. The role of wind in disease spread, through its effect on Culicoides dispersal, is still uncertain, and remains unquantified. We examine here the relationship between farm-level infection dates and wind speed and direction within the framework of a novel model involving both mechanistic and stochastic steps. We consider wind as both a carrier of host semio-chemicals, to which midges might respond by upwind flight, and as a transporter of the midges themselves, in a more or less downwind direction. For completeness, we also consider midge movement independent of wind and various combinations of upwind, downwind and random movements. Using stochastic simulation, we are able to explain infection onset at 94 per cent of the 2025 affected farms. We conclude that 54 per cent of outbreaks occurred through (presumably midge) movement of infections over distances of no more than 5 km, 92 per cent over distances of no more than 31 km and only 2 per cent over any greater distances. The modal value for all infections combined is less than 1 km. Our analysis suggests that previous claims for a higher frequency of long-distance infections are unfounded. We suggest that many apparent long-distance infections resulted from sequences of shorter-range infections; a 'stepping stone' effect. Our analysis also found that downwind movement (the only sort so far considered in explanations of BT epidemics) is responsible for only 39 per cent of all infections, and highlights the effective contribution to disease spread of upwind midge movement, which accounted for 38 per cent of all infections. The importance of midge flight speed is also investigated. Within the same model framework, lower midge active flight speed (of 0.13 rather than 0.5 m s 21 ) reduced virtually to zero the role of upwind movement, mainly because modelled wind speeds in the area concerned were usually greater than such flight speed. Our analysis, therefore, highlights the need to improve our knowledge of midge flight speed in field situations, which is still very poorly understood. Finally, the model returned an intrinsic incubation period of 8 days, in accordance with the values reported in the literature. We argue that better understanding of the movement of infected insect vectors is an important ingredient in the management of future outbreaks of BT in Europe, and other devastating vector-borne diseases elsewhere.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 57%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new algorithm quantifies the roles of wind and midge flight activity in the bluetongue epizootic in northwest Europe

et al. 2012

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“…In an area more than 160 km from land, catches averaged one insect per hour; in the English Channel, more than 80 km from the coast, catches averaged four insects per hour. Transport over longer distances is facilitated by the relative smoothness of the sea, while distances covered over land are, on average, shorter because physical barriers may lead to air turbulence, causing the 'drop down' of Culicoides midges (2).…”

Section: Long-range Dispersal Of Culicoides Midgesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The indications are that increasing international travel, the globalisation of trade and climate change, among other factors, play an important role in the introduction, establishment and spread of arthropod-borne pathogens (2). In some instances, this is facilitated by the dispersal of vectors over long distances (>100 km) by prevailing winds (3).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mosquitoes and Culicoides biting midges: vector range and the influence of climate change

Elbers¹,

Koenraadt²,

Meiswinkel³

2015

Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE

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SummaryVector-borne animal diseases pose a continuous and substantial threat to livestock economies around the globe. Increasing international travel, the globalisation of trade, and climate change are likely to play a progressively more important role in the introduction, establishment and spread of arthropod-borne pathogens worldwide. A review of the literature reveals that many climatic variables, functioning singly or in combination, exert varying effects on the distribution and range of Culicoides vector midges and mosquitoes. For example, higher temperatures may be associated with increased insect abundancethereby amplifying the risk of disease transmission -but there are no indications yet of dramatic shifts occurring in the geographic range of Culicoides midges. However, the same cannot be said for mosquitoes: over the last few decades, multiple Asian species have established themselves in Europe, spread and are unlikely to ever be eradicated. Research on how insects respond to changes in climate is still in its infancy. The authors argue that we need to grasp how other annectant changes, such as extremes in precipitation (drought and flooding), may affect the dispersal capability of mosquitoes. Models are useful for assessing the interplay between mosquito vectors expanding their range and the native flora and fauna; however, ecological studies employing classical mark-release-recapture techniques remain essential for addressing fundamental questions about the survival and dispersal of mosquito species, with the resulting parameters fed directly into new-generation disease transmission models. Studies on the eventual impact of mosquitoes on animal and human health should be tackled through large-scale integrated research programmes. Such an approach calls for more collaborative efforts, along the lines of the One Health Initiative.

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“…For several diseases, it has been suggested that wind-blown insect vectors could have been responsible for the spread of the virus to previously unaffected areas (61), such as the entry of BT into Europe (62) and Australia (63) and of JE into Australia (64). Wind-spread models have been developed to model such dispersions and may be used to identify areas at risk of arboviral incursion due to windborne insects (65,66,67).…”

Section: Participatory Surveillancementioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological surveillance methods for vector-borne diseases

Thompson¹,

Etter²

2015

Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE

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SummaryCompared with many other diseases, the ever-increasing threat of vectorborne diseases (VBDs) represents a great challenge to public and animal health managers. Complex life cycles, changing distribution ranges, a variety of potential vectors and hosts, and the possible role of reservoirs make surveillance for VBDs a grave concern in a changing environment with increasing economic constraints. Surveillance activities may have various specific objectives and may focus on clinical disease, pathogens, vectors, hosts and/or reservoirs, but ultimately such activities should improve our ability to predict, prevent and/or control the diseases concerned. This paper briefly reviews existing and newly developed tools for the surveillance of VBDs. A range of examples, by no means exhaustive, illustrates that VBD surveillance usually involves a combination of methods to achieve its aims, and is best accomplished when these techniques are adapted to the specific environment and constraints of the region. More so than any other diseases, VBDs respect no administrative boundaries; in addition, animal, human and commodity movements are increasing dramatically, with illegal or unknown movements difficult to quantify. Vector-borne disease surveillance therefore becomes a serious issue for local and national organisations and is being conducted more and more at the regional and international level through multidisciplinary networks. With economic and logistical constraints, tools for optimising and evaluating the performance of surveillance systems are essential and examples of recent developments in this area are included. The continuous development of mapping, analytical and modelling tools provides us with an enhanced ability to interpret, visualise and communicate surveillance results. This review also demonstrates the importance of the link between surveillance and research, with interactions and benefits in both directions.

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A wind density model to quantify the airborne spread of Culicoides species during north-western Europe bluetongue epidemic, 2006

Cited by 114 publications

References 24 publications

A new algorithm quantifies the roles of wind and midge flight activity in the bluetongue epizootic in northwest Europe

A new algorithm quantifies the roles of wind and midge flight activity in the bluetongue epizootic in northwest Europe

Mosquitoes and Culicoides biting midges: vector range and the influence of climate change

Epidemiological surveillance methods for vector-borne diseases

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