A Westward Shift in Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity and Genesis Regions in the North Atlantic During the Last Interglacial

Abstract

Given the longstanding debate on geomorphological features (i.e., megaboulders, chevron‐shaped sand ridges, and runup deposits) observed around the Bahamas, it is unclear whether Earth experienced superstorms over the North Atlantic during the Last Interglacial (LIG). Based on multimodels from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project, we illustrate that the tropical North Atlantic exhibits an overall warming (∼0.9°C) during the storm season of the LIG relative to preindustrial. Potential intensity shows a zonal dipole anomaly over the main development region during the LIG, with positive anomalies in the west, offering an increased probability of extremely strong storms. Favorable conditions for storm formation shift from the eastern to the western main development region during the LIG, with enhanced large‐scale steering flows at higher latitudes (∼15 – 30°N). These results suggest a westward migration of storm activity during the LIG, with potentially more frequent and intense storms over the western North Atlantic and increased coastal erosions.

Elevated atmospheric CO 2 drove an increase in tropical cyclone intensity during the early Toarcian hyperthermal

“… 36 . Extremely strong storms were documented over the North Atlantic ( 37 – 39 ) during the peaking warming of the Last Interglacial (~129 to 124 ka) in which global sea surface temperature was ~1 °C higher than present ( 40 ) owing to changes in Earth’s orbital configuration and hence insolation. Warmer sea surface temperatures also contributed to the recorded intense hurricanes over the North Atlantic during several intervals of the last two millennia ( 9 ).…”

Revisiting Battistini: Pleistocene Coastal Evolution of Southwestern Madagascar

“…In response to changes in global temperature gradients, wave climates and storm patterns have the potential to be different in the LIG. For example, modeling results presented by Yan et al (2021) suggest that tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic was markedly different during the LIG, with shifts in areas of genesis and storm intensity driven by increases in sea surface temperature. While not applied to the Indian Ocean basin, a deviation from the modern wave and storm climate along the Lembetabe coast is conceivable and would have the potential to rearrange sediment within the littoral system following peak MIS 5e peak sea level.…”

Asymmetric and Irreversible Response of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity to CO2 Removal

“…In response to the very likely future warming, both theoretical and numerical modeling studies projected an enhancement of storm intensity (Knutson et al, 2020;Lee et al, 2020;Pérez-Alarcón et al, 2023;Wu et al, 2022), hence posing tremendous risks and impacts for the socioeconomic development and human lives (Peduzzi et al, 2012;Rappaport, 2000). Such projected stronger storms are supported by the evidence during the past warmer-than-present climates (Fedorov et al, 2010;Hearty & Tormey, 2017;Krencker et al, 2015;Yan et al, 2016Yan et al, , 2021Yan et al, , 2023, highlighting the intimate linkage between storm intensity and global warming.…”