A western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity prediction scheme

Abstract

A western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction scheme (WIPS) is developed based on TC samples from 1996 to 2002 using the stepwise regression technique, with the western North Pacific divided into three sub-regions: the region near the coast of East China (ECR), the South China Sea region (SCR), and the far oceanic region (FOR). Only the TCs with maximum sustained surface wind speed greater than 17.2 m s −1 are used in the scheme. Potential predictors include the climatology and persistence factors, synoptic environmental conditions, potential intensity of a TC and proximity of a TC to land. Variances explained by the selected predictors suggest that the potential intensity of a TC and the proximity of a TC to land are significant in almost all the forecast equations. Other important predictors include vertical wind shear in ECR, 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly at the TC center, zonal component of TC translation speed in SCR, intensity change of TC 12 or 24 h prior to initial time, and the longitude of TC center in FOR.Independent tests are carried out for TCs in 4 yr (2004)(2005)(2006)(2007), with mean absolute errors of the maximum surface wind being 3.0, 5.0, 6.5, 7.3, 7.6, and 7.9 m s −1 for 12-to 72-h predictions at 12-h intervals, respectively. Positive skills are obtained at all leading time levels as compared to the climatology and persistence prediction scheme, and the large skill scores (near or over 20%) after 36 h imply that WIPS performs especially better at longer leading times. Furthermore, it is found that the amendment in TC track prediction and real-time model analysis can significantly improve the performance of WIPS in the SCR and ECR. Future improvements will focus on applying the scheme for weakening TCs and those near the coastal regions.

Statistical Prediction of Typhoon-Induced Rainfall over China Using Historical Rainfall, Tracks, and Intensity of Typhoon in the Western North Pacific

“…The losses caused by these disasters have also continued to increase in recent years. The western North Pacific (WNP) is one of the oceanic regions most prone to typhoons [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Since China is located on the west coast of the WNP, it is greatly affected by typhoons, particularly along the east coast [10].…”

An Index to Better Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific

“…The intensification potential (POT) is defined as the difference between MPI and the current intensity. The POT is considered the most important predictor in the statistical-dynamical TC intensity prediction models (Chen et al, 2011;DeMaria & Kaplan, 1994, 1999. In particular, DAT-based POT shows the highest correlation coefficient with intensity change (Kim et al, 2018).…”

Projected changes of typhoon intensity in a regional climate model: Development of a machine learning bias correction scheme

“…The chief reason for the choice of parameters is that these dynamic and thermodynamic conditions are essential for the strengthening and/or maintaining of storm (Bister and Emanuel, 1998; Hendricks et al ., 2010; Tang and Emanuel, 2010; Chen et al ., 2011; Mei et al ., 2015; Nguyen and Molinari, 2015). Such as the inflow of zonal wind can be characterized as the rapid intensification of storm; the intrusion of cold air from mid‐upper troposphere and the outflow of zonal wind can abate the storm's strength; the interplay between the meso‐scale vortex and the cyclonic vortex has a non‐linear relationship with the storm's strength; sea surface temperature, total vapour flux and specific humidity provide the hydrothermal condition for the development and strengthening of cyclone; The vertical wind shear could destroy the warm core of cyclone in most cases and has inhibition on the storm's strength; the sea level pressure around the storm's centre has a close correlation relationship with the storm's strength;…”