A Weather-Based Prediction Model of Malaria Prevalence in Amenfi West District, Ghana

Abstract

This study investigated the effects of climatic variables, particularly, rainfall and temperature, on malaria incidence using time series analysis. Our preliminary analysis revealed that malaria incidence in the study area decreased at about 0.35% annually. Also, the month of November recorded approximately 21% more malaria cases than the other months while September had a decreased effect of about 14%. The forecast model developed for this investigation indicated that mean minimum (P = 0.01928) and maximum (P = 0.00321) monthly temperatures lagged at three months were significant predictors of malaria incidence while rainfall was not. Diagnostic tests using Ljung-Box and ARCH-LM tests revealed that the model developed was adequate for forecasting. Forecast values for 2016 to 2020 generated by our model suggest a possible future decline in malaria incidence. This goes to suggest that intervention strategies put in place by some nongovernmental and governmental agencies to combat the disease are effective and thus should be encouraged and routinely monitored to yield more desirable outcomes.

Malaria Burden and Trend Among Clients Seeking Healthcare in the Western Region: A 4-Year Retrospective Study at the Sefwi-Wiawso Municipal Hospital, Ghana

“…2). The seasonal trend of malaria cases with a higher rate in the wet season observed in this study could be attributed to the relative increase in the number of breeding grounds for the Anopheles mosquitoes, increased oviposition by the vector leading to an increase in malaria parasitaemia during rainfall seasons, an assertion also corroborated by Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Musumba [32] and Darkoh, Larbi [33]. However, it is believed that extreme rainfall can reduce malaria infection rate by washing away mosquitoes from their breeding grounds hence reducing the numbers of disease vectors [33 -35].…”

Modelling Trends of Climatic Variability and Malaria in Ghana Using Vector Autoregression

“…Therefore, modelling malaria and the climatic variables together will improve the forecast of malaria. These results are in line with studies conducted by Darkoh et al [ 18 ] and Klutse et al [ 19 ]. The results from the study conducted by Klutse et al [ 19 ] showed that maximum temperature was a better predictor of malaria trends than minimum temperature or precipitation especially in the transition zone, whereas results obtained by Darkoh et al [ 18 ] indicate that rainfall is not significant.…”

“…Meanwhile, the results from a study by Asare and Amekudzi [ 17 ] to assess climate driven malaria variability indicated that the intra- and inter-agro ecological variability in terms of intensity and duration of malaria transmission are predominantly controlled by rainfall. Also, Darkoh et al [ 18 ] investigated the effects of climatic variables on malaria incidence in Ghana. A time series analysis was carried out.…”

Malaria Parasite Infection in Some Periurban and Rural Communities in Ekiti State, Nigeria

“…Environmental factors have been reported to contribute significantly to malaria prevalence, its distribution, seasonality, and transmission intensity [31]. Darkoh, et al [32] has also identified malaria as the most climate sensitive disease in which changes in temperature, rainfall, and humidity could influence malaria prevalence directly by modifying the behaviour and geographical distribution of malaria vectors as well as changing the length of the cycle of the parasite within the vectors. The reason is that the malaria vectors usually thrive well and more abundant during raining season due to availability of abundant breeding places [33].…”