A Water Resources Planning Response to Climate Change in the Senegal River Basin

Venema, Henry David; Schiller, Eric J.; Adamowski, Kaz; Thizy, Jean-Michel

doi:10.1006/jema.1996.0120

Cited by 28 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Such an approach has been effectively used in many situations: resource planning (Venema et al, 1997), order planning (Verganti, 1997), transportation network design (Leung and Cheung, 2000) and production scheduling (Tang and Grubbström, 2002). An illustration of an optimization-simulation approach is included as online supplementary material (S.8).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aggregate–disaggregate approach to an airfreight forwarder’s planning under uncertainty: a case study

Leung¹,

Hui

Chen

et al. 2017

Journal of the Operational Research Society

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Resource planning of airfreight forwarders is a complex endeavor, requiring decisions to be made in a dynamic and uncertain environment. Airfreight forwarders acquire airfreight spaces from three sources: allotment from carriers, retail from carriers and subcontracting to partners, all of which differ in terms of cost, flexibility and timing of booking. This real-life problem has many planning decisions (bookings in terms of carriers, route, time, ULDs, etc.). In this case study, we propose an aggregate-disaggregate approach and focus on the most critical decisions. A two-stage stochastic dynamic program first determines, in aggregates, the amount of allotment bookings, retail resources, and subcontracting or surplus co-loading. Then, a heuristic is used to disaggregate resource requirements into specific bookings. An analysis is provided to examine the relevant managerial issues. Based on real-life data, we show several patterns of aggregate resource bookings with respect to different levels of demand uncertainty and cost parameters. We show that resource disaggregation has to balance costeffectiveness, capacity flexibility and routing flexibility of a resource plan.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aggregate–disaggregate approach to an airfreight forwarder’s planning under uncertainty: a case study

Leung¹,

Hui

Chen

et al. 2017

Journal of the Operational Research Society

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“…During the 1970s and 1980s, the whole of West Africa was affected by drought, as shown by the graphs of ten-year mean isohyets (equal rainfalls contour lines, (Puech 1983;Albergel et al 1984;Venema et al 1997); with the 800 mm isohyet moving southwards by nearly two degrees of latitude along certain meridians. In the Sudanese Sahel, the flow of the Senegal River was reduced significantly; at Bakel the annual mean flow dropped by an average of 75% between 1970 and 1990, and by 50% during the 1980s (Mahé and Olivry 1995).…”

Section: Methods and History Of The Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Large Dams and Uncertainties: The Case of the Senegal River (West Africa)

Dumas

Miétton

Hamerlynck

et al. 2010

Society & Natural Resources

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This paper examines the environmental and socio-economic consequences of hydraulic infrastructural changes along the Senegal River valley and estuary. During the 1980s, two dams were built along the valley floor to facilitate hydro-electrical production and regular water supply for crop irrigation. In 2003, a breach was dug across Barbary Spit to alleviate flooding in the nearby Saint-Louis city. Although these structures helped regulate the river flow, they also resulted in a series of unforeseen impacts. The study examines these, after on-site measurements (topometry, water salinity, piezometry), analysis of hydrological data, field observations, and surveys with dam managers, state regional directions and local stakeholders. It stresses the urgency of elaborating models of hydraulic management to limit the negative consequences of the hydraulic constructions. These models should consider the variety of water uses in the middle valley and delta, and also the water safety and quality (salinity) downriver from Diama Dam.

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“…In contexts where there are competing users, multistage and multicriteria models have provided hierarchical solutions that minimize deviance from users' ideal points [Watkins et al, 2000;Munda et al, 1998]. Economic valuation allows for cost-benefit analyses of management models [Venema et al, 1997;Iglesias et al, 2003a]. Gómez Ramos et al [2002] analyzed a reservoir management model based on the fulfilment of supply reliability objectives and the economic effects of experiencing service failures.…”

Section: à3mentioning

confidence: 99%

Formal risk‐transfer mechanisms for allocating uncertain water resources: The case of option contracts

Ramos

Garrido

2004

Water Resources Research

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[1] Water allocation in Mediterranean basins is characterized by increasingly uncertain availability. Mechanisms that facilitate water transfers and efficient risk sharing are critical for dealing with cyclical water shortages. An option contract can be an appropriate instrument for aiding such exchanges based on specific water rights attributes. Access to certain amounts of water under preestablished conditions could provide the basis for the option contract. The main objective of this paper is to test the hypothesis according to which an option contract may be a viable instrument for achieving efficient sharing of hydrological risks. A dynamic, stochastic, and discrete time model is developed to characterize the contract from the viewpoint of the selling party. The application of this methodology can find the compensating premium, which is computed as a risk premium. The premium ensures adequate compensation for the seller as well as for the additional risk imposed by the contract. The hypothesis is empirically tested by simulating the contract as a partial solution to the problems faced by the urban supply system of Seville (Spain). The other party is an irrigation district. Results show that the option contract would be a viable solution for both parties. For Seville's urban water supply system the option contract provides a more cost-effective alternative water supply than those presently considered by the city's water company. We find that mixed strategies including company's drought plans and option contracts are the most efficient, leading to less severe and less likely water shortages within the city supply system.

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A Water Resources Planning Response to Climate Change in the Senegal River Basin

Cited by 28 publications

References 15 publications

Aggregate–disaggregate approach to an airfreight forwarder’s planning under uncertainty: a case study

Aggregate–disaggregate approach to an airfreight forwarder’s planning under uncertainty: a case study

Large Dams and Uncertainties: The Case of the Senegal River (West Africa)

Formal risk‐transfer mechanisms for allocating uncertain water resources: The case of option contracts

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